Daily analysis 12.09.2013

The EUR/USD is moving above 1.3300. Today the two-day meeting regarding the Syrian issues starts in Geneva. Putin in the “NYT”. Light version of tapering and modified forward guidance keep pressure on the dollar. The zloty is still strong. Despite a slight C/A deficit, the BOP still looks fairly positive.

Macro data (CET- Central European Time). Survey is supplied by Bloomberg unless otherwise noted.

• 14.30 CET: weekly jobless claims from the US (survey 330k)
• 15.00 CET: William Dudley (dovis, voting president of the New York Fed, 3rd the most important person in the Federal Reserve). Speech on OTC derivative market. There is a slim chance that he will elaborate more on the next week Fed's decision

Talks in Geneva. Putin put pressure on Obama in the “NYT”. A perspective of modified forward guidance and dovish Fed

It is possible that in the coming days we will receive a final resolution regarding Syria, which should allow markets to forget about the issue. A interesting analysis on that case was presented by The Wall Street Journal. In the article “Geneva Talks Mark Big Test for U.S., Russia” authors point out that not only the US is under pressure to end the stalemate, but also Russia is committed to ease the Middle East tensions. Today, the US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov are meeting in Geneva to resolve the Syrian issue. During the incoming two days they are suppose to present the solution that will avert the military intervention. A success on the talks will significantly strengthen the Russian diplomatic position and also allow Obama to finish the “dispute” with minor wounds.

A closeness to the Damascus resolution does not mean the end to image failures to the US. The New York Times published today a Wladimir Putin's article which is directed to the American public (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/12/opinion/putin-plea-for-caution-from-russia-on-syria.html?_r=0 ). The Russian president describe himself as a loving peace person. He seems to be concerned that the pope is against the US strike, that the military action would bring more “innocent victims” and it can be dangerous for Israel (“Reports that militants are preparing another attack — this time against Israel — cannot be ignored.”). However, what should most concern the White House was Putin's last paragraph where he denied “American exceptionalism” form the Tuesday's Obama's address to the nation. Putin ended the article writing “We are all different, but when we ask for the Lord’s blessings, we must not forget that God created us equal”.

There are more rumors that the next week Federal Reserve meeting will end with a really limited tapering - $10 billion. Moreover, the Fed will try to calm down the markets and can modify its forward guidance reducing the unemployment threshold to 6.0%. It should limit the moves on treasuries and should put a celling on the yields (probably 10-year benchmark will not rise above 3%). It is also expected that the Federal Reserve will give a really dovish statement, maybe claiming that if the economic growth slows it can increase the QE?. In the end the tapering decision (markets' message) does have to be bullish for the “greenback”.

Summarizing the pressure to get an agreement on Syria is pretty strong from both sides so the resolution will be probably finished by this weekend. Additionally the market is eager force the dovish Fed scenario and build an impression that tapering can be bearish for the dollar. Such an outcome could even push the EUR/USD above 1.33.

Stronger zloty

The zloty has gained around 2% since the beginning of the week. Yesterday we moved toward 4.2100 per the euro, which leveled of all the losses caused by the Syrian issues and the pension reform.

On Wednesday we had also quite positive BOP. Despite that the current account result fell short of expectations (NBP reported a slight deficit vs estimated fractional surplus), the balance of goods was again on the positive side. The Export grew 6% from July 2012 and the import rose 0.4%. Summarizing all the BOP components the NBP increased its foreign reserves by 1.60 billion euro.

Today the PLN should be moving in line with the global sentiment. By the weekend the improving overall geopolitical situation and bearish dollar approach can push even the EUR/PLN under 4.20.

Expected levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD rate:

Expected GBP/PLN levels according to the GBP/PLN rate:

The comeback over 1.3300 will negate the last week's sell signal. Mix on the zloty pairs.

Technical analysis EUR/USD: if the EUR/USD rises above 1.3300 it should generates the buy signal with the first target at 1.3400 and second toward 1.3650. Staying under 1.3300 is still bearish.

Technical analysis EUR/PLN: the fall under 4.26 generates a signal toward a range trade between 4.22-4.26. Sliding under 4.22 prefers the bearish positions toward 4.18.

Technical analysis USD/PLN: the fall under 3.22 negates the bullish trend. The first target is around 3.18 and second 3.15.

Technical analysis CHF/PLN: the comeback under 3.43 negates the buy signal. Now the base case scenario is a range trade between 3.40-3.45. Sliding under 3.40 generates a sell signal with target at 3.33.

Technical analysis GBP/PLN: on the pound there is still bullish trend. Only a slide under 5.00 generates a sell signal with a target at 4.93.