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Daily analysis 12.06.2015

12 Jun 2015 13:11|Marcin Lipka

The IMF negotiators are heading back to Washington D.C. and Donald Tusk claims that it is time to end the gambling. The EUR/USD has defended itself from the decreases despite the good data from the USA and the decrease in profitability of the German debt. Angela Merkel on the euro. The zloty remains stable to the euro, but wears off to the franc.

Most important macro data (CET). Estimations of macro data are based on Bloomberg's information, unless marked otherwise.

  • 14.30: Producers' inflation from the USA (estimations: 0.4% m/m; excluding fuel and food +0.1% m/m)
  • 16.00: Initial reading of the consumers' sentiment index from the University of Michigan (estimations: 91.2 points)

Departure of negotiators is also part of negotiations

The IMF negotiators returned to Washington D.C., due to the lack of progress in the negotiations with Greece. This announcement met with a lot of intrigue yesterday. However, it should not be interpreted as a lower probability of achieving an agreement with Athens. The IMF has great experience in negotiating with countries facing danger of insolvency. Greece is probably not their greatest challenge in history, despite most likely being the most mentioned case.

Additionally, the above announcement has been presented by the IMF spokesman, and not the chairwoman. This also decreases its significance. If needed, the Fund's representatives can quickly return. This on the other hand can be considered as a clear improvement of the sentiment, because it will mean that the standpoints of both sides have got closer.

Yesterday, Donald Tusk joined the conversation regarding Greece. The chairman of the European Council claimed that “the time for gambling is over, and it is clear that we need decisions, not negotiations”. Comments of the foreign reporters underline the fact that Tusk was always quite neutral in his public statements, and now, he has clearly intensified his statement by almost directly blaming Tsipras' administration.

In the meantime, a new crucial date for the Greek negotiations has appeared – 18th of June. This is when the Eurogroup summit will occur. One cannot exclude that it will be used to build up more tension inside Greece, rather than present a specific agreement. Besides, this strategy is beginning to work. For the first time since the beginning of the crisis, almost half of the Greeks have agree to the creditors' propositions. They have also begun to evaluate Tsipras' negotiation strategy negatively. Despite this, however, Syriza still has very high support. Therefore, it seems that the strategy of a struggle, until the majority of the society will consider the reform as necessary, is beginning to bring satisfying results. This also increases the chances for a final agreement.

Data from the USA, bonds and Merkel

Yesterday's data about the retail sales from the USA were clearly better than the expectations. The reading which excluded cars and fuel increased by 0.7% m/m, while the expectations were in the limits of +0.5%. However, it caused a temporary decrease in the EUR/USD. The main currency pair was also resistant to the decreases of the German debt profitability.

The European currency has been clearly overvalued by today's statement from Angela Merkel. The German chancellor said that the strong euro hinders the introduction of a reform in countries like Spain or Portugal. Although, she was not referring to the current situation, the EUR/USD went below 1.1150 for a while. Later, however, there was a rebound to the area of 1.1200.

Few words about the foreign market

Ignoring the negative signs for the EUR/USD (better data from the USA, the German debt, Greece, Merkel) in the last few hours, will probably cause the investors' attention to move on to the other side of the ocean. Most likely, it will be Wednesday's summit of the Federal Reserve that will give us the answer, how will the behaviour of the American currency look during the forthcoming weeks. This will also tell us a few things about the EUR/USD.

The zloty is stable in relation to the euro. The franc is slightly more expensive

The end of the week on the national currency should be relatively calm. The majority of transactions should be conducted slightly below the level of 4.15 on the EUR/PLN. One should expect some more variability on the USD/PLN, although we will experience more emotions regarding the dollar next week, due to the Fed summit.

Today, it is the franc which has slightly risen. It is related to the decrease of the EUR/CHF pair, caused mainly by the decrease of the German debt profitability, and increased anxieties regarding Greece. Thus, the things we did not see on the EUR/USD due to the uncertainty related to next week's Fed summit, translated to the Swiss currency. Because of this, the franc has also gained approximately 0.02 PLN to the zloty. There should not be any bigger changes on the CHF until the end of Friday's session.

Anticipated levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD rate:

Range EUR/USD 1.1150-1.1250 1.1050-1.1150 1.1250-1.1350
Range EUR/PLN 4.1300-4.1700 4.1300-4.1700 4.1300-4.1700
Range USD/PLN 3.6900-3.7300 3.7300-3.7700 3.6500-3.6900
Range CHF/PLN 3.9400-3.9800 3.9400-3.9800 3.9400-3.9800

Anticipated GBP/PLN levels according to the GBP/USD rate:

Range GBP/USD 1.5350-1.5450 1.5250-1.5350 1.5450-1.5550
Range GBP/PLN 5.7000-5.7400 5.6600-5.7000 5.7400-5.7800

12 Jun 2015 13:11|Marcin Lipka

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without acknowledgement of the source is prohibited.

See also:

11 Jun 2015 17:10

Afternoon analysis 11.06.2015

11 Jun 2015 13:40

Daily analysis 11.06.2015

10 Jun 2015 17:24

Afternoon analysis 10.06.2015

10 Jun 2015 13:09

Daily analysis 10.06.2015

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