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Daily analysis 10.12.2013

10 Dec 2013 10:22|Marcin Lipka

The appetite to test 1.38 on the EUR/USD. James Bullard tries to probe the market on December tapering. More tensions in Ukraine. The zloty is still stable to the euro. Acronyms: BRIC, PIGS, and PICKS?

Macro data (CET- Central European Time). Survey is supplied by Bloomberg unless otherwise noted.

  • Besides the market consensus we are also publishing the consensus range. It gives more info how economists predict the incoming data and what kind of impact can be generated from surprising reports.
  • No data which can affect the analysed pairs.

The FOMC. Ukraine

The EUR/USD has risen toward 1.3750 level. In the coming days we will see very few key economic data and the FOMC member will not be officially presenting their views till the next week Fed meeting. In result the most traded currency pair can be under the influence of the recent bullish trend, so the test of recent highs (over 1.3800) is pretty possible.

Yesterday we had three Federal Reserve members speeches, but investors focused mainly on one preson – James Bullard. The St. Louis Fed president during the meeting organized by the CFA was expected to give us more info regarding the December tapering. As Reuters reports he said that “One reaction to that [solid jobs data – author's note] would be to say 'how about if we have a small taper at the upcoming meeting?' and that would recognize the progress that's been made in labor markets, which I think is undeniable," he said in a presentation in St. Louis”. The statement can be regarded as quite hawkish, but later he return to the dovish rhetoric saying that “Should inflation not return toward target, the committee could pause tapering at subsequent meetings. From Bullard presentation (http://research.stlouisfed.org/econ/bullard/pdf/Bullard-CFA-St-Louis-December-9-2013-Final.pdf ) we can conclude (kind of confirming “minutes”) that the Federal Reserve considers to modify “forwrad guidance”, set an inflation floor at 1.5% or introduce the conference after each meeting. The appearance of the other FOMC officials was much less significant. Both Richard Fischer and Jeffrey Lacker expressed their concerns regarding the QE operation which was a no surprise event.

As Bloomberg reports in an article „Ukraine Currency Forwards Slump as Interbank Rates Surge to 20%” the situation in Polish east neighbour is worsening. Despite that the Ukrainian hryvnia is pegged and controlled by the central bank 3m forward contracts shows that it will weaken by 8%. additionally the interbank rate rose from 4.3% (November 29th) to 20% yesterday.

Summarizing the EUR/USD is clearly eager to test the recent highs and move over 1.3850. It can be even possible before the next week Federal Reserve meeting.


We got used to BRICS abbreviation which was developed by former Goldman Sachs asset manager Jim O'Neill. During the financial crisis the European countries which were badly hurt by debt problems were named PIGS. Yesterday on TVN CNBC and two months ago on CNBC (http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000206473 ) Bartosz Pawłowski from BNP Paribas announced another set of countries PICKS (Poland, Israel, Czech Republic, South Korea and Singapore) which suppose to benefit the most from the rebounding economy.

On the local currency market there has been no movements recently. The EUR/PLN has been stable and in the foreseenable future the 4.16-4.20 range should not be breached.

Expected levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD rate:

Range EUR/USD 1.3450-1.3550 1.3550-1.3650 1.3350-1.3450
Range EUR/PLN 4.1600-4.2000 4.1600-4.2000 4.1600-4.2000
Range USD/PLN 3.0800-3.1200 3.0500-3.0900 3.1100-3.1500
Range CHF/PLN 3.3800-3.4200 3.3800-3.4200 3.3800-3.4200

Expected GBP/PLN levels according to the GBP/PLN rate:

Range GBP/USD 1.6250-1.6350 1.6350-1.6450 1.6150-1.6250
Range GBP/PLN 5.0100-5.0500 5.0300-5.0700 4.9900-5.0300

10 Dec 2013 10:22|Marcin Lipka

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without acknowledgement of the source is prohibited.

See also:

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