__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
CINKCIARZ_FX
Valid: 1 session
Maintains user sessions.
csrfToken
Valid: It does not expire
Protection against csrf attacks.
user
Valid: It does not expire
Stores information that indicates whether the user is from the USA.
browserId
Valid: It does not expire
Required for trusted browsers to function properly.
collect-bank-#
Valid: It does not expire
usłudze Collect. Remembers the last chosen bank in the Collect service.
collect-country-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen country in the Collect service.
collect-currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Collect service.
social_offer_top20_currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Top 20 List).
social_offer_exchange_buy_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_buy_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_sell_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to sell).
social_offer_exchange_sell_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to sell).
#-service-popup
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers choosing "Do not show this message again." when changing providers.
missing-required-fields-form-#
Valid: It does not expire
Records information that the missing data form has been shown to the user.
The main economist of the World Bank, discourages the United States from increasing interest rates. Irrespective of recommendations from the WB, the chance for a change in the American monetary policy in September remains slim. The zloty takes advantage of the improvement in the global sentiment.
Most important macro data (CET – Central European Time). Estimations of macro data are based on Bloomberg information, unless marked otherwise.
World Bank against the hikes in the USA
In June and in July the International Monetary Fund (IMF) appealed to the Federal Reserve for abandoning the plan to increase interest rates in 2015. At that time, the IMF economists claimed there is too much uncertainty regarding inflation, employment and an increase in salaries on the other side of the ocean. Thus, it is better to wait with the monetary tightening. It is likely to deteriorate the conditions of financing for the local enterprises. It can also continue to enforce the dollar, which will have a negative impact on American export.
Above that, today's interview with the main economist of the World Bank contained arguments concerning the emerging markets. It is mostly their situation that speaks for keeping the interest rates on the current level. Kaushik Basu told the Financial Times that by performing the hikes in September, the Federal Reserve risks causing “panic and commotion”. In his opinion the Fed should wait for the calming down of the global situation.
The representative of the World Bank emphasized that any kind of monetary tightening will cause more risk-sensitive capital to abandon the emerging markets and a commotion in their currencies. This on the other hand will lead to an enforcement of the American dollar and have a negative impact on the increase in the United States.
Of course, one interview is not able to change the attitude of the Federal Reserve representatives regarding September's decisions. However, considering the relatively big sensitivity of the American central bank for the market events and recent comments from John Williams for The Wall Street Journal, an increase in interest rates in September is very unlikely. This should not be changed by even a few increase sessions on New York's stock market before next week's meeting of the Fed.
The monetary market also shows a relatively slight likelihood of an increase being performed this month. According to the calculations of Bloomberg agency, the chance for the tightening in September is 30%. On the other hand, a possibility of raising the interest rates in October or December, is respectively 42.6% and 59.8%.
Some investors continue to speculate that the Fed can wait with the hikes until 2016. However, there is a small chance for such a scenario coming true. The FOMC consensus suggests an increase this year for many months. It is reasonable, considering the situation of the American economy, and excluding the global impact of this decision.
We sustain our opinion that after the first monetary tightening, there will be even a six-month-long break in further increases in interest rates. If the market believes that the hikes cycle will be extremely calm, a more serious correction on the dollar can be observed.
Few words about the foreign market
Participants of the EUR/USD are influenced by two opposite powers. An improvement in the situation on the global shares market, encourages to activate carry trade on the euro, which should wear off the common currency. On the other hand, better readings of the GDP from the eurozone are related to a slight chance for hikes in the USA and encourage buying the main currency pair. For the time being, the appetite for the EUR/USD has a slight advantage. However, the upwards movement can be limited, especially if the coming sessions in the USA will be as good as yesterday.
The zloty takes advantage from the good sentiment
The Polish currency takes advantage of an improvement in the global sentiment of the capital markets. Its main indicator is the behaviour of the stock markets indexes on the other side of the ocean. Before noon, the EUR/PLN went to the area of 4.21.
In contrast to the depreciation of the euro-zloty caused by the dovish signals from the EBC, this movement should continue for a longer time. A change of sentiment on shares should not reverse that quickly. Especially that today the pessimists were quite brutally punished in Tokyo, where a record amount of short positions needed to be closed in a hurry. This caused an increase in Nikkei by more than 7%.
The situation on the CHF/PLN continues to be positive. Due to the general appreciation of the zloty, the franc remains close to the level of 3.85, despite a big correction and a depreciation of the EUR/CHF below 1.09. The Swiss currency below the limit of 3.90 continues to be the base case scenario.
Anticipated levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD rate:
Anticipated GBP/PLN levels according to the GBP/USD rate:
See also:
Afternoon analysis 08.09.2015
Daily analysis 08.09.2015
Afternoon analysis 08.09.2015
Daily analysis 07.09.2015
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Download our app
Stay tuned and make managing your favourite currency services faster, easier, and more convient. Wherever you are.