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Daily analysis 09.06.2016

9 Jun 2016 13:57|Marcin Lipka

New evidence for a statistical disturbance in Friday's data from the American labor market. The EIA data featured in the monthly report from the oil market. After a few days of appreciation the zloty lost slightly against the dollar, and is stabilizing against the euro.

Most important macro data (CET – Central European Time). Estimations of macro data are based on Bloomberg information, unless marked otherwise.

  • 14.30: Weekly jobless claims from the USA (estimations: 270k).

Increased doubts regarding Friday's data

In Monday's Daily Analysis, we took note that it is very likely that due to methodology used by the American Labor Department, the worse than expected readings from the labor market are a result of statistical disturbances, rather than an effect of a decreasing amount of workplaces.

We have indicated that the sample group was relatively small. Moreover, there were no significant changes in the ADP data that presents new workplaces in the private sector. Additionally, if we look at new jobless claims, it is positive as well. Basically, it has been at its multi-year minimum for months.

The above hypothesis can be confirmed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) job offer readings from yesterday. The results were significantly higher than economists expected (5.78 million vs. 5.68 million), and they were equal with their highest level in history. The pace of growth that was within the range of 3.5-3.8% for the past year, increased to 3.9%, and reached a historical level from January 2001, as well as from July 2015.

Getting back to Janet Yellen's testimony from Monday, we have heard from her that, “the situation in the labor market that was indicated in several consumer surveys, remains positive.” Surveys, as well as jobless claims, are very often considered as accelerating elements of the labor market. Thus, we cannot see any danger from this side for the time being.

Of course, there is no way to omit Friday's payrolls in the Federal Reserve announcement on Wednesday (especially in its part concerning the current situation in the labor market). Thus, the dovish tone may be sustained by at least this part. On the other hand, is it becoming less likely that the situation in the labor market would be a clear danger for the FOMC plans.

Next week's press conference may look similar. Especially considering that many questions from reporters will certainly concern the labor market. On the other hand, the FOMC chairwoman will definitely have more time to answer them than she had in Philadelphia on Monday. As a result, general feedback for next week's Fed announcement may be significantly less dovish than some observers expect. Therefore, it may help the dollar to work-off some of its losses as well.

Oil market

We continue to observe visible growths in the oil market. They are related to a bigger than expected demand (from India and the USA, for example), as well as a lower supply or positioning of the terminal market.

The monthly EIA publication indicated the significance of losses in Canada's mining caused by wildfires. According to the EIA, the average was 800k barrels per day in May. This means that in comparison to previous estimations, losses in oil are at the level of approximately 20 million barrels. Moreover, the agency expects that in comparison to the base case scenario, the reduction of Canada's production will be 400k barrels in June.

However, it is worth noting that the report was not only a support for oil quotations. The EIA continues to indicate a surplus of supply over demand within the range of 500-800k per day. According to the agency, this surplus will continue until the second quarter of 2017. This, on the other hand, denies the EIA report from May. It stated that the market will basically balance before the third quarter of 2016. Depending on which studies are closer to the truth, oil will return to the range of 40-50 USD per barrels, or will continue to increase during the Winter season. The latter case assumes that oil prices will remain within the range of 50-60 USD.

Zloty is relatively stable

Marek Belka's press conference after the MPC meeting on Wednesday, did not bring much crucial information for the currency market. There were no speculations regarding inflation projections in July. On the other hand, the discussion regarding a slowdown in investments in the first quarter confirmed that it was rather a one-time factor. Leaving interest rates at an unchanged level remains the base case scenario.

Despite the fact that the next meeting will occur under the chairmanship of professor Glapinski, we should not expect changes in the Polish monetary policy. That is of course, if the macroeconomic data in the forthcoming months is consistent with expectations. This element should stabilize the Polish national currency.

Since the morning we have observed a certain global consolidation of the American dollar. Therefore, the USD/PLN returned above 3.80. The EUR/PLN continues to remain below 4.35. However, if the sentiment in the American shares market deteriorates, it is possible that this level will be tested in the evening.

9 Jun 2016 13:57|Marcin Lipka

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without acknowledgement of the source is prohibited.

See also:

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Afternoon analysis 08.06.2016

8 Jun 2016 12:11

Daily analysis 08.06.2016

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Afternoon analysis 07.06.2016

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Daily analysis 07.06.2016

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