__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
CINKCIARZ_FX
Valid: 1 session
Maintains user sessions.
csrfToken
Valid: It does not expire
Protection against csrf attacks.
user
Valid: It does not expire
Stores information that indicates whether the user is from the USA.
browserId
Valid: It does not expire
Required for trusted browsers to function properly.
collect-bank-#
Valid: It does not expire
usłudze Collect. Remembers the last chosen bank in the Collect service.
collect-country-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen country in the Collect service.
collect-currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Collect service.
social_offer_top20_currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Top 20 List).
social_offer_exchange_buy_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_buy_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_sell_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to sell).
social_offer_exchange_sell_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to sell).
#-service-popup
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers choosing "Do not show this message again." when changing providers.
missing-required-fields-form-#
Valid: It does not expire
Records information that the missing data form has been shown to the user.
Lack of decision about soothing monetary policy in Euro Zone, causes enforcing of common currency and approaching of EUR/USD to boarders of 1.3600 level. Data from American labour market are today in the centre of attention. Further problems of Ukraine. Polish zloty tries to come back below the level of 4.18 per euro.
Macro data (CET- Central European Time). Survey is supplied by Bloomberg unless otherwise noted.
ECB. NFP and Ukraine
Thursday's highlight was of course ECB decision about money rates and later Mario Draghi's press conference. According to economists' expectations, the value of money in Euro Zone remained on the same level. After announcing this decision, we had a slight growth of variety on EUR/USD, but most of the market participants knew, that the crucial moment will be ECB president's press conference which started 45 minutes later and Bank's announcement. When it appeared that Draghi and his collaborators did not start any non-standard elements of monetary policy, EUR/USD increased to highest levels since the end of January. Apart from copied from month to month informations that inflation in Euro Zone will remain below aim for longer time, economic growth will remain on low level and probabilities for CPI, as well as for GDP, are moved more in the direction of lower than higher readings, it is worthy to pay attention to quite clear instructions about circumstances in which we can expect smoothing the monetary policy, passed by the president. Most important element is the ECB macroeconomic projection held in March. I will include most of all first estimations of GDP growth and inflation for year 2016. Another matter brought up by Draghi (in his announcement as well as answering the questions) is the tension on Emerging Markets (which “pleased” the EM currencies; Fed ignored the problems of developing countries during its summit at the end of January). Draghi though did not say, how should ECB respond to EM problems. But bringing up the subject itself (also at upcoming G20 forum), clearly helped the risk sensitive assets. Last element was bringing up next week's reading of Euro Zone's GDP/ President's mentioning of one “figure” will cause that the market will surely prepare itself well for this reading, if it may have a significant input for the decision of future monetary policy. The question about possibility of resignation from sterilizing the purchase of obligations programme in frame of SMP operation (I wrote more about it in yesterday's comment) was also supportive for euro. Draghi confirmed that it is “one of many possible elements”, but later added, that it was not discussed on Thursday's meeting. Market interpreted this statement as decreasing the probability of introducing it in the future.
Today's investors' behaviour will be dominated by data from American labour market. It happens usually in the first Friday of the month. After surprisingly weak payrolls from December (only 74 thousands, which is 100 thousands less than the economists' expected), afternoon's data will be observed more carefully. Estimations of main information agencies (Bloomberg, Reuters or Dow Jones Newswires) are shaping in boarders of 180-190 thousands and it will be the main point of reference for the market. Traditionally the worse the readings (at least by 20 thousands), the bigger chance and scale of dollar's reduction of price. On the other hand, a publication above prognoses (at least over 20 thousands) is an occasion for “buck's” value growth. Apart from “headline” reading it is worthy to remember about data revision (from previous two months). Also, as Eric Morath wrote in today's “The Wall Street Journal”, data from January will also include 2013 reports' update. Morath underlines, that in 2012 revision was +30 thousands vacancies per month. Informations about unemployment rate will be also an interesting element. The lower its level, the bigger chance for forward guidance modification.
The situation on Ukraine is anxious all the time. Bloomberg informs, that the central bank of our eastern neighbour has officially devalued hryvnia's value, used to accounting purposes (from the level of 7.99 per dollar to 8.7; market rates are 8.85). Also controls of capital flow were introduced. They are based on at least “six day waiting period for purchasing foreign currencies by companies”. Financial tensions are direct derivative of stopping Russia's help for Ukraine (from the package worthy of 15 billions only 3 were sent at this moment, and another instalment is on hold). Economist of London's RBS, Tatiana Orlova, quoted by Bloomberg, wrote that “political impasse and holding another part of financial help from Russia increases the risk of Ukraine's bankruptcy in this year”.
EUR/USD market after yesterday's taking off in areas of 1.3600, clearly wants to attack the higher levels. To do it, it needs worse data from American labour market (at lest 20 thousands and lack of upward revision from previous months). On the other hand, in case of good payrolls, dollar can quickly enforce, and then it is not impossible that EUR/USD will fall below yesterday's minimums (1.3480).
Strong PLN
After some hesitations during announcing the ECB decision (theoretically the lower money rates in Euro Zone, the bigger attractiveness of national currency for wallet investors), zloty chose the option of enforcing (argument of aversion's decrease to risk, appeared to be stronger than the perspective of bigger money rates' difference). Thanks to this we are beginning to come back to well known division of hesitations (4.14-4.18 per euro). Optimum scenario for zloty's bulls were slightly worse than expected data from American labour market. They would hold the chances for longer conducting of ultra ease monetary policy by Fed, and at the same time they would not be a threat for economic growth on the other side of the ocean (which means that positive sentiment should dominate).
Base scenario for zloty is to remain below the level of 4.20 per euro. If the data from USA will not be much different from the prognoses, variety on national currency will be limited and short termed.
Expected levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD rate:
Expected GBP/PLN levels according to the GBP/PLN rate:
See also:
Daily analysis 06.02.2014
Daily analysis 05.02.2014
Daily analysis 04.02.2014
January 2014 summary
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Download our app
Stay tuned and make managing your favourite currency services faster, easier, and more convient. Wherever you are.