Daily analysis 04.01.2013

Yesterday's “Minutes” suggests that FED may be reducing/withdrawing from QE3 as early as in 2013. Dollar strengthened on the FED data. News of the day is NFP. The zloty is clearly under pressure with EUR/PLN over 4.1000 and USD/PLN exceeding 3.1500.

Najważniejsze dane makro (czas CET – środkowo europejski):

• 14.30 CET: NFP (Reuters survey 150k and Bloomberg 153k)
• 16.00 CET: services ISM from U.S (survey 54 points)
• 16.00 CET: factory orders form U.S (survey +0.4% m/m)

FED minuts strengthened the dollar. The annual rotation of FOMC voting members is next month.

Thursday's slide on EUR/USD was pushed further by quite hawkish FED statement. According to “Minutes” a few members want to continue the current QE till the end of 2013. On the other hand several representatives would like to end the easing program during 2013. The others are in favor to run the ultra dovish policy until the unemployment drops below 6.5% and projected inflation is below 2.5%. Helpful in translating the FED language is Robin Harding article from Financial Times. “A few” means two or three, and “several” gives either four or five. If we add the numbers we can clearly see that at least 6 out 12 members would like to end the operation till the end of the year. The market reaction is reasonable especially the analysts' expectations regarding gradual withdrawing from QE was heading rather toward 2014. The info can weigh on the markets till at least to the next FED meeting. However, it is worth to remember that the next FOMC meeting will be after the routine annual rotation of voting members. The core Federal Reserve will be joined by ultra dovish and Bernanke supporters Charles Evans and Eric Resengren.

NFP in focus.

Today investors will be waiting for the jobs info. In Thursday's analysis I pointed out that the market reaction on better/worse-then-expected data is not clear. However, the FOMC minutes give some direction and in my opinion the report above market's estimates (over 200k) will strengthen the USD further. Additionally there is high probability that the survey will be exceeded due to strong ADP reading (est. 135k, actual: 215k). The confirmation of this theory comes also from Goldman Sachs. Wall Street Journal reports that the famous investment bank raised its forecast from 175k to 200k for NFP. I expect that if we get reading above 200k we can see drop of EUR/USD to around 1.2900 level and further weakness of PLN (USD/PLN to 3.18-3.19).

Data from current week will still be weighing on PLN.

The signaled yesterday data regarding weak Q4 GDP reading and weak debt auction can weaken PLN further in the following days. Additionally the strong correction on the bond market (over 20 bps on 10 years benchmark) and EUR/USD slide will not be helping the zloty. We cannot also forget about surprising professor Belka vote (50 bps rate decrease) during November MPC meeting. The rate was lower by only 25bps but it increase the odds that both on January and February meeting the rate will be decreased by a quarter of percentage point. Taking into account all the issues the PLN weakness will be expected in the next days and from fundamental point of view the real levels for EUR/PLN is 4.12-4.14 and 3.18-3.20 for USD/PLN.

Expected levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD value:

Technical analysis EUR/USD: the first target signaled yesterday by technical analysis has been met (around 1.3000). The next levels which can be reached in the coming days is 1.2900 and then 1.2820-1.2780 (between 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level and 200 DMA).

Technical analysis EUR/PLN: EUR/PLN is still in range trade (4.06-4.12). Only the breakout above 4.1200 will give the strong by signal with the target around 4.1650-4.1800 (200 DMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level).

Technical analysis USD/PLN: the signaled yesterday move toward 3.1600 has almost been reached. The strength of the move increase the probability that 3.1650 level will be broken and the move toward 3.2200 and then 3.26-3.28 is expected.

Technical analysis CHF/PLN: not much emotion is on CHF/PLN. Only the breakout above 3.4100 will give the strong buy signal with the target of 3.4600. The analysis however still prefers the range trend.