Daily analysis 03.03.2016

Due to data from the USA, China, and the United Kingdom, the market is less optimistic than in the past few days. Unambiguous surveys regarding the Brexit. The zloty remains stable to the euro. According to Eurostat data, Poland experienced a high increase in retail sales.

Most important macro data (CET – Central European Time). Estimations of macro data are based on Bloomberg information, unless marked otherwise.

• 14.30: Weekly jobless claims from the USA (estimations: 270k).
• 16.00: Orders in the American industry (estimations: positive 2.1%).
• 16.00: ISM from the American services sector (estimations: 53.1 points).

Slight deterioration of sentiments

The pace of improvement of the global sentiments, caused mostly by growths in the American stock market and the S&P 500 index reaching the area of two thousand points, stopped slightly. Moreover, the market received weaker macroeconomic data - a slightly worse economic description than from the Fed's Beige Book, and lower than expected PMI indexes from China and the United Kingdom.

The general report about the economic situation, particularly from the Federal Reserve departments, continues to show that the economy of the majority of districts is developing. However, it is worth noting that the pace of this expansion wore off in comparison to the description in January. The situation improved in seven out of 12 regions, while in January, nine districts reported better economic conditions. In March, one of the districts (Kansas City) reported a slight deterioration of the economic activity.

Thus, the Beige Book can add even more uncertainty before the meeting of the Federal Reserve, planned for mid-March. The crucial question is, to what degree will the slowdown from outside the USA influence the deterioration of the base case scenario for this country? This decision will be influenced by macroeconomic projections of particular FOMC members, as well as the path of monetary tightening.

Once again, the market received weak readings from China. The PMI for the future condition of the services sector, depreciated to the level of 51.2 points. Entrepreneurs who were surveyed by Caixin and Markit, reported a slowdown in the services sector and in the employment sector. Additionally, the group index of the industrial and services sector went below 50 points, which is the level that separates progress from regress. In his summary of the data, Caixin chief economist He Fan, wrote that, “another depreciation below 50 points indicates that the economy remains weak and unstable.”

However, a significantly worse than expected (55.1 points) reading of the services from the PMI from the United Kingdom, was probably the biggest surprise. The publication, at the level of 52.7 points, was the weakest since March 2013. Moreover, according to Markit and CIPS, an increase in employment was at its 2.5-year minimum.

In his summary of the data, Markit chief economist Chris Williamson, says that the GDP growth could slow down in the first quarter to 0.3%. Williamson also claims that those surveyed were also afraid of signs of fading demand, volatility in the financial markets, and an increased risk of Brexit.

Remaining on the topic of Brexit, it is worth noting, that based on the average of six recent surveys published at Whatukthinks.org, 51% are for staying in the European Union, and 49% support Brexit. Thus, it is still possible that the forthcoming weeks will be anxious about the pound. Especially if the surveys remain unambiguous, and incoming macro data shows a slowdown of the economic growth on the British Isles.

Few words about the foreign market

The ISM readings from the American services sector should be the most significant publication of the day. If it goes below the level of 52 points (consensus of 53.1), which is the lowest level for 6 years, the anxieties of the American economy may increase. Moreover, the market will not expect the Fed to raise interest rates for the entirety of the first half of 2016. On the other hand, if the data is near or better than the consensus, the attention will move towards the Friday payrolls. If it also confirms the power of the American economy, the dollar may gain clearly on its value, and the EUR/USD could end the week above the limit of 1.0800.

Stabilization strategy

The EUR/PLN pair fluctuates in the central area of the range of 4.30-4.35. It can be considered at a balanced level in the current market conditions. It should not be disturbed, even by a slight increase in risk aversion caused by weaker data from the global economy. This scenario assumes a milder monetary policy abroad, which in general should support the PLN against other currencies. Clearer commotions alone, in the global markets, could endanger exit of the EUR/PLN above the level of 4.35.

It is also interesting how Polish retail sales published by the Eurostat and the Polish Central Statistical Office (GUS) differ. According to the Eurostat, it grew at pace of 7.5% y/y in January. On the other hand, the base case reading by GUS, presented by the media, was positive 0.9% y/y for January. This difference is mainly a result of the fact that the Eurostat presents a volume of sales, GUS presents a change of value, and moreover, the publication is seasonally equalized.