Daily analysis 02.12.2013

We are still around 1.3600 on the EurUsd. A day full of PMI readings and the week with the ECB rate decision and US jobs data. Solid Polish PMI helping the zloty. The Ukrainian case should be neutral for the PLN.

Macro data (CET- Central European Time). Survey is supplied by Bloomberg unless otherwise noted.

• Besides the market consensus we are also publishing the consensus range. It gives more info how economists predict the incoming data and what kind of impact can be generated from surprising reports.
• Already published final manufacturing readings from Germany, France and the Eurozone.
• Already published PMIs from Spain and Italy.
• Manufacturing ISM from the US (survey: 55.5; expectation's range: 52-56.7 points.

PMIs. ECB. NFP

After slightly higher inflation readings from the euro area (survey: +0.8% vs +0.9% actual y/y), the EurUsd stabilized close to the 1.3600 levels. The good mood was also strengthened by Chinese PMI publication which finally was 0.5 points above the preliminary reading (50.9 vs 50.4 - quite an upgrade especially considering the closeness of the breakeven level). Later, however the situation has worsened. The Markit survey for Spain indicated that its manufacturing sector is shrinking. The data was more than 2 points below economists' estimates (48.6 vs around 51). In the commentary to the index Markit senior economist Andrew Harker writes that “The latest PMI survey highlights the current fragility of the Spanish manufacturing sector, with the domestic market the key source of weakness. The only real positive from the November data is a further rise in new export business, but on this occasion export growth was not sufficient to support an increase in total new orders. Spain is a second major Eurozone country after France where the industry is anticipated to shrink according to the Markit data. If the situation does not improve in the following months the 2014 euro area growth forecast can be downgraded. In result it will bring the ECB closer to another non-standard monetary measures (LTRO, negative deposit rates for institutions and even assets purchase program). Such a development should bring a significant pressure to the EurUsd, especially in 2014.

Not going too far into the future we are coming back to the recent week. In the following trading days investors will be closely scrutinizing two issues - the ECB meeting and non-farm payrolls from the US. Staring from the first the market consensus does not expect any monetary policy changes. Mario Draghi and his colleagues will probably wait for any results from the recent rate cut and get more data to make any assessments. Market participants will also dig into the new ECB inflation and growth projections (2014 inflation will probably be downgraded, the question mark is a growth). The last but of course not least event is ECB chief conference. It will be crucial how Draghi interprets the recent data, how he sees inflation in 2014 and how much emphasis he puts on the non-standard monetary actions. Any remarks on key issues will be instantly priced in the EurUsd rate. Regardless what happens during the week most FX investors will put most attention to the NFP data and its revisions. If we get a reading above 200k and the last two reports are not revised downwards we will expect a strong downside pressure on the EurUsd and bring the tapering expectations much closer to the Fed's December meeting. On the other hand a disappointing report (under 150k) will should keep the dollar weaker.

Summarizing, the European PMIs were a negative signals for the EurUsd - Spanish Managers' surveys adds more disappointments to the French one. Today we should also get the ISM readings from the US which can either put pressure on the dollar (weaker data) or give the greenback an additional boost in case of strong performance.

Solid PMI from Poland

the manufacturing managers' survey run by Markit and HSBC surprised on the plus side. The reading turned out to be the highest since April 2011 (54.4). The growth was much broader then in previous surveys - new orders and production positively contributed to the index. It can give a hope that the economic rebound will be continued by more "engines" - consumption and investments will join the export.

The political turmoil in Ukraine should not have any effect on the Polish zloty. Despite that both countries share the same border they are diametrically different perceived by foreign investors. Only a much further deterioration of the situation (not expected currently) can have an impact on Polish interests in the region and can bring some downward pressure to the zloty.

Summarizing the PLN is beginning the weak a bit stronger, but local investors (both on the FX and FI) will be waiting for the Friday's payrolls. It can set the sentiment even till the end of the year.

Expected levels of PLN according to the EUR/USD rate:

Expected GBP/PLN levels according to the GBP/PLN rate: