__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
CINKCIARZ_FX
Valid: 1 session
Maintains user sessions.
csrfToken
Valid: It does not expire
Protection against csrf attacks.
user
Valid: It does not expire
Stores information that indicates whether the user is from the USA.
browserId
Valid: It does not expire
Required for trusted browsers to function properly.
collect-bank-#
Valid: It does not expire
usłudze Collect. Remembers the last chosen bank in the Collect service.
collect-country-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen country in the Collect service.
collect-currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Collect service.
social_offer_top20_currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Top 20 List).
social_offer_exchange_buy_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_buy_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_sell_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to sell).
social_offer_exchange_sell_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to sell).
#-service-popup
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers choosing "Do not show this message again." when changing providers.
missing-required-fields-form-#
Valid: It does not expire
Records information that the missing data form has been shown to the user.
A lot of impulses for the EUR/USD, but the main currency pair remained within a limited volatility range. The Bank of England's decision may be significant for the pound. The zloty remained stable. PMI in Poland slightly below the market consensus, but price pressure is increasing. The EUR/PLN between 4.23 and 4.24.
Key macro data (CET time - Central European). Estimates of macro data are based on Bloomberg data unless otherwise noted.
A number of impulses in a limited movement range
Wednesday was rich in important macroeconomic publications from the US. ADP data showed a faster than expected increase in private sector employment (235k vs. 200k). However, the industrial ISM index was slightly below the consensus (58.7 pts. vs. 59.5 pts.), but maintenance close to the 60 level it should still be considered a very good result. The dollar was slightly stronger after this information, but it was generally visible that there will be no serious movements at the time.
In addition, the Wall Street Journal announced that Jerome Powell had already been informed by the White House about his appointment as President of the Federal Reserve in the evening. This, in turn, slightly depreciated the USD, but, as in the case of macroeconomic data, movements were limited. No significant information has been learned from the statement after the meeting of the Federal Reserve, which maintained the prospect of further to moderate GDP growth and the limited impact of hurricanes on the US economy.
The beginning of today's session is also characterised by limited movements. The final PMI indexes from the eurozone's industry sector were preliminary readings and achieved the same result (58.5 pts). In the data's commentary by Chris Williamson, the head economist at IHS Markit wrote that this year's industrial condition has been the best since 2000. He also drew attention to the strong labour market and growing orders in export. However, this information was also ignored mainly because it has been known for more than a week.
As the result, the scenario, about which we wrote on Monday, has been implemented. Too many market impulses and speculations about tax system reform in the US or Friday's data from the American labour market may cause that market to wait until the end of the week before moving rapidly. However, if the tax reform plan was revealed over the coming hours (cutting the fiscal burden on enterprises and households in line with earlier announcements) and tomorrow's publication by the Department of Labour showed a wage growth close to 3% the dollar should appreciate and the EUR/USD should be significantly depreciated.
The Bank of England's decision
Today at 1.00 p.m., the Bank of England will probably decide to raise interest rates. This will be the first monetary policy tightening in a decade. However, it seems that this is not an increase in the cost of credit by 0.25 percentage points up to 0.5%. This will be the most important, but the general tone of the monetary authorities is toward further moves.
The economists' consensus assumes that the decision on the increase will be taken by voice distribution 7:2. The information that, apart from Cunliffe and Ramsden, Silvana Tenreyro also objected to monetary tightening could be received as dovish. It will also be interesting to suggest whether today's decision will mark the beginning of a longer cycle of increases or whether the Bank of England will bring rates to pre-Brexit levels, and look at inflation and the process of leaving the EU by the UK over the coming quarters.
Additionally, the BoE will also publish the minutes from November's meeting and the Inflation report. A large amount of information and hard to interpret nuances can cause rapid movements on the pound. In addition, half an hour later, Mark Carney's press conference will start. The BoE's President has recently become more hawkish, which may suggest that, however, the final message from the British monetary authorities will support the sterling.
The limited movements on the zloty
Since Tuesday afternoon, the zloty has had a slight increase in value. The Polish currency was primarily supported by good global sentiment caused by further market shares growth in the US combined with stabilisation of the US government bond market. Among domestic factors, Tuesday's inflation data showing a price increase of 0.5% MOM could also support the zloty. This may be one of the arguments for part of the Polish Monetary Policy Council to present a slightly more hawkish message at next week's meeting and therefore, strengthen the zloty.
In the morning, data from the Polish industry was published. The PMI index was slightly below the forecasts (53.4 pts vs. 54.0 pts), but in the description provided by IHS Markit, there was very little negative information (read for October equals the current average for 2017). However, it may be interesting that the costs of ready-made products in the industry increased in October at the fastest pace in more than six years. Connected with recent consumer inflation reports and rapid wage growth, this information may also contribute to a more restrictive MPC approach than it seemed a few weeks ago.
See also:
Afternoon analysis 31.10.2017
Daily analysis 31.10.2017
Afternoon analysis 30.10.2017
Daily analysis 30.10.2017
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Download our app
Stay tuned and make managing your favourite currency services faster, easier, and more convient. Wherever you are.