__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
CINKCIARZ_FX
Valid: 1 session
Maintains user sessions.
csrfToken
Valid: It does not expire
Protection against csrf attacks.
user
Valid: It does not expire
Stores information that indicates whether the user is from the USA.
browserId
Valid: It does not expire
Required for trusted browsers to function properly.
collect-bank-#
Valid: It does not expire
usłudze Collect. Remembers the last chosen bank in the Collect service.
collect-country-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen country in the Collect service.
collect-currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Collect service.
social_offer_top20_currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Top 20 List).
social_offer_exchange_buy_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_buy_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_sell_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to sell).
social_offer_exchange_sell_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to sell).
#-service-popup
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers choosing "Do not show this message again." when changing providers.
missing-required-fields-form-#
Valid: It does not expire
Records information that the missing data form has been shown to the user.
Better than expected retail sales data supports the zloty. The EUR/PLN goes down in red again below 4.30. The fluctuations of the pounds continue. This time positive data reduces the chances of a hard Brexit.
Euro and dollar are stable
Another set of good data from the Polish economy. Retail sales in fixed prices increased by 7.8% y/y, 2 percentage points above the market consensus. This may suggest that fears of a greater than expected slowdown in GDP growth pace may have been somewhat overstated. Today's positive sales data in October is in line with a similar trend as in the case of data from the industrial sector or the labour market. Although the data for the first month of the last quarter and publications for November will be important in this context, the chances for a good GDP reading for the Q4 have increased.
Higher probability of this may support the zloty in the coming weeks, despite negative information concerning the Polish financial supervision, especially if there is no dollar appreciation. The situation on the equity market has also calmed down somewhat and the potential growth in the global equity market, resulting in improved global sentiment and lower risk aversion, may also have a positive impact on the zloty.
The zloty's quotations in relation to the main currencies are a reflection of its slightly better situation. Around 4:00 p.m., the EUR/PLN was slightly below 4.30, close to the lower quotation limit recorded last Friday. Similar trends could be observed in the relation between the zloty and the Swiss franc or the dollar. The exception was the pound. The GBP/PLN exchange rate rose to just over 4.86 when information started to flow in about changes made by negotiators from the United Kingdom and the EU (mainly on the Irish border), which may reduce the probability of an unordered Brexit.
The calendar of scheduled macroeconomic events for the rest of the day is practically empty; therefore the chances of significant zloty fluctuations in relation to basic currencies are low. The turnover is also slightly lower due to the US holiday today and tomorrow. If nothing unexpected happens, the core scenario until the end of this week remains the stabilisation of the zloty, the euro and the dollar on the global market.
Tomorrow's preview
On Friday, the most important publications will be the preliminary data of the IHS Markit PMI indexes of industrial and services sectors for the eurozone. At 9:15 a.m. the data will be available for France, a quarter of an hour later for Germany and at 10:00 a.m. for the eurozone as a whole. Excluding the index for the industrial sector in Germany and the eurozone (where no change is expected), the median of market expectations in other cases indicates a decrease of 0.1 - 0.3 points, also among the aggregate indexes.
The euro's quotations in relation to the main currencies have stabilised in recent days. If data does not differ significantly from consensus and previous values, IHS Markit publications may be neutral for the currency market, especially as volatility may be limited because of the absence of some US investors (a trading day off on the US markets). Therefore, it is likely that the zloty's quotations should also be stable and should not show any significant changes in value.
See also:
Pound's reaction to leaks on Brexit (Daily analysis 22.11.2018)
Zloty in better shape (Afternoon analysis 21.11.2018)
Hard negotiations on Brexit (Daily analysis 21.11.2018)
Drops in market strengthen dollar (Afternoon analysis 20.11.2018)
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Download our app
Stay tuned and make managing your favourite currency services faster, easier, and more convient. Wherever you are.