__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
CINKCIARZ_FX
Valid: 1 session
Maintains user sessions.
csrfToken
Valid: It does not expire
Protection against csrf attacks.
user
Valid: It does not expire
Stores information that indicates whether the user is from the USA.
browserId
Valid: It does not expire
Required for trusted browsers to function properly.
collect-bank-#
Valid: It does not expire
usłudze Collect. Remembers the last chosen bank in the Collect service.
collect-country-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen country in the Collect service.
collect-currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Collect service.
social_offer_top20_currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Top 20 List).
social_offer_exchange_buy_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_buy_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_sell_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to sell).
social_offer_exchange_sell_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to sell).
#-service-popup
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers choosing "Do not show this message again." when changing providers.
missing-required-fields-form-#
Valid: It does not expire
Records information that the missing data form has been shown to the user.
A marathon of central bank meetings failed to shake the currency market in the last market-full week of this year. The dollar lost ground against the pound, the franc and the euro.
In a nutshell, the world's most important central bankers have not been frightened by the new variant of the coronavirus. If anything, they fear that another wave of the disease could temporarily slow growth, as well as permanently and severely exacerbate problems with out-of-control inflation.
Central banks have been in the limelight
The Federal Reserve will accelerate the tapering of asset purchases and is preparing for as many as three rate hikes next year. Rates have been raised in Norway (a planned second hike in the cycle) and the UK (an unexpected start to normalisation despite record infections and the rapid spread of omicron).
As a result, the pound is the strongest of the main currencies. During the week, it rose by around 0.5%, and the GBP/USD pair is valued at about 1.33. Despite the abundance of news from the monetary policy front, the euro or the franc have fluctuated even less. The EUR/USD is above 1.13, but the November 30 high has not been overcome. In Conotoxia's currency forecasts, we assume that the highs of the dollar's strength are behind it. Rising interest rates, much faster than in the eurozone, will undoubtedly be a strong asset for the US currency, limiting the scale of its depreciation. We expect that at the end of March, the exchange rate will rise from the current levels of 1.13 to 1.15, i.e. by less than 2%.
The franc exchange rate indifferently passed the central bank meeting. The monetary authorities still believe that the currency is overvalued and intend to counter its strength. Their enthusiasm is tempered by the fact that low EUR/CHF levels could help to limit the strong rise in inflation. A rising but on a global basis low inflation (1.5% year-on-year in November) can be welcomed after years of deflationary threats. We believe that the franc should not be significantly stronger than it is now. A clear and strong trend of the franc weakening against the main currencies will have to wait until the European Central Bank starts to think more boldly about raising interest rates.
The euro: ECB seeks its identity
This is not likely to happen in the coming months. At yesterday's meeting, the decision to end the pandemic emergency asset purchase programme (PEPP) in March was outlined. Still, it was noted that there is a chance to use this tool if the deterioration of economic fundamentals by the pandemic requires it.
At the same time, the scale of the "traditional" APP purchase programme in the second quarter was increased to 40 billion EUR per month. In other words: the monetary stimulus for the economy will continue to flow, but with a different tool. Its reduction in the second half of next year is to proceed at the rhythm of 10 billion EUR per month. In summary, the very soft stance that has been a drag on the euro against the franc or the dollar in recent months has been maintained.
It should be added that inflation forecasts have been revised upwards. It is expected to reach 2.6% for the consumer price index and 1.9% for core prices next year. If it starts to turn out that they are still too low, and price pressures change their character and cease to result from disruptions in supply chains and one-off factors, the door may open for a quicker abandonment of the soft stance and faster consideration of interest rate rises. At present, markets are not ready for such a scenario, and it would be a chance for clear rises in the EUR/USD pair, which would help push the USD/PLN lower. Although it is a distant story for now, we expect a more positive narrative to crystallise around the eurozone economy next year (growth in Germany will shake off its current woes). This will be traditionally positive for the CEE3 and Scandinavian currencies, a catalogue that is perceived in the financial markets in terms of so-called satellites, currencies that are strongly linked to the economic situation in the eurozone.
See also:
The dollar is weaker after the Fed. The euro, franc and pound still await central banks (Daily analysis 16.12.2021)
FX markets face central bankers bonanza: the pound and the euro at risk, the dollar and the Norwegian krone with opportunities (Daily analysis 15.12.2021)
Dollar hopeful looks up at the Federal Reserve (Daily analysis 13.12.2021)
The Swiss franc ticks lower, the pound may be close to the bottom (Daily analysis 7.12.2021)
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Download our app
Stay tuned and make managing your favourite currency services faster, easier, and more convient. Wherever you are.