__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
CINKCIARZ_FX
Valid: 1 session
Maintains user sessions.
csrfToken
Valid: It does not expire
Protection against csrf attacks.
user
Valid: It does not expire
Stores information that indicates whether the user is from the USA.
browserId
Valid: It does not expire
Required for trusted browsers to function properly.
collect-bank-#
Valid: It does not expire
usłudze Collect. Remembers the last chosen bank in the Collect service.
collect-country-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen country in the Collect service.
collect-currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Collect service.
social_offer_top20_currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Top 20 List).
social_offer_exchange_buy_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_buy_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_sell_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to sell).
social_offer_exchange_sell_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to sell).
#-service-popup
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers choosing "Do not show this message again." when changing providers.
missing-required-fields-form-#
Valid: It does not expire
Records information that the missing data form has been shown to the user.
There are more and more leakages about the announced truce in the US-China trade conflict. In the context of the trade war, it is also worthwhile to observe the events in Hong Kong. The zloty and the slightly stronger dollar depreciate, but the Polish currency still remains strong.
The most important macro data (CET - Central European Time). Surveys of macro data are based on information from Bloomberg unless noted otherwise.
Extension of the trade agreement
In yesterday's analysis, we emphasised the main elements of the expected trade truce. It seems that the information that has been coming in over the past few hours may suggest that this ceasefire will be more comprehensive than could have been expected. This also means that the impact should also be more positive for the global economy and, in particular, for Europe, which is heavily affected by the trade conflict, when the changes under discussion come into force.
At the beginning of the month, the dominating scenario was that Washington's agreement with Beijing would primarily include provisions for higher purchases of agricultural goods by the Chinese, while the US would instead abandon the new customs duties on imports from the Middle Kingdom planned for December. Now, however, there is much to suggest that the concessions on both sides will be much greater.
Before midday, the Financial Times published a letter citing five people familiar with the subject, saying that the administration of President Donald Trump is wondering whether to revoke the 15% tariffs imposed in September on annual imports worth around 112 billion USD (clothing, household appliances, screens). This would mean, as the FT reminds us, that Beijing's main requirements for a truce would be met. On the other hand, such large concessions from the US (together with the freeze on customs duties expected from December, less than half of Chinese imports would be subject to additional charges) may mean that at least preliminary agreements on intellectual property rights must be signed. "FT" estimates that the US would like to sign the agreement on US territory.
In the last few hours the Wall Street Journal also pointed out that the first phase of the pact will include the prevention of currency manipulation (the USA accuses China of this). The "WSJ", like the "FT", estimates that the agreement will also include provisions related to the protection of intellectual property. The WSJ adds information about the possibility of a wider opening of the Chinese industry to American companies.
Another important element which increased the chances of an agreement was the unannounced meeting between the Hong Kong authorities and the Chinese President. Carrie Lam, Hong Kong Chief Secretary for Administration, said that her meeting with Xi Jinping was good news and showed "his interest and concern for Hong Kong". Other statements quoted by Bloomberg may also suggest that Beijing wants to ease the dispute with the former British colony and, contrary to earlier speculation, Lam's position is not at risk for the time being. In the past, leading representatives of the US administration have expressed the view that a peaceful solution in Hong Kong issues can also contribute to a trade agreement. Media coverage shows that Beijing follows these suggestions (provided, of course, that actions follow the words).
Taking into account all the information received in the past hours, a much more comprehensive agreement can be expected. This is also seen by investors. S&P futures have reached new historical highs and the strengthening of the yuan against the dollar has brought the USD/CNY exchange rate below the 7.00 boundary. If an enlarged agreement were to be signed, one can expect that market sentiment would remain relatively good for longer, especially if the incoming economic data from the eurozone (e.g. PMI or Ifo quickly react to changes in sentiment) started to improve significantly.
Zloty stabilises
The zloty lost some of its recent increases despite the good global sentiment. This may be due to a slight dollar appreciation in relation to the euro (the rate approaches the 1.11 boundary again). The US currency is slightly stronger not because of market fear but in response to information that the trade agreement may be more comprehensive than expected, which means a decreasing risk of further interest rate cuts by the Fed, and perhaps even a return to the need to think about the increases. In general, however, the situation of the zloty in the next few hours should not change dramatically, and the Polish currency is likely to remain relatively strong and stable.
See also:
Positive sentiment puts data in the shade (Daily analysis 4.11.2019)
China pours out a bucket of cold water on a long-term deal with the USA (Daily analysis 31.10.2019)
GDP in the US surprises (Daily analysis 30.10.2019)
Brexit postponed, pound stable (Daily analysis 28.10.2019)
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Download our app
Stay tuned and make managing your favourite currency services faster, easier, and more convient. Wherever you are.