__cfduid
Valid: 29 days
It helps us protect the website from threats such as hacker attacks. Used by Cloudflare to recognise trusted network traffic.
__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
There is a growing likelihood of an agreement between China and the USA, and the risk of a chaotic Brexit is diminishing. Again there are weak data from the eurozone, especially from European industry. Data from Poland are average and have no significant impact on the zloty. The Polish currency remains weak, and euro costs 4.33-4.34 PLN.
The most important macro data (CET - Central European Time). Surveys of macro data are based on information from Bloomberg unless noted otherwise.
Fed did not surprise
The "minutes" from the January Federal Reserve meeting were not a breakthrough. The decision to change the stance towards monetary policy (no suggestions for further rate hikes and the removal of balanced risks) received broad support. This could also be seen at a press conference at the end of January this year. There was no discussion among the FOMC members about cancellations of balance sheet reductions (what appeared at the conference), but it can be seen from the statements of Fed economists (first part of "minutes") that this topic is widely discussed and balance sheet reduction is not engraved in stone (especially in the case of the need to cut interest rates). As a result, "minutes" were neutral, which was visible on the US Treasury bond market, where the reaction to the publication was minimal.
The growing chances of extended trade negotiations on the USA-China line are positive. March 1st, which was supposed to be the key date, is now being forgotten. In addition, the planned high-level talks (with the participation of President Donald Trump) give hope that the customs conflict will be resolved in the coming months. This is good news for Asian economies and partly also for European economies.
It also seems that Brexit issues are going in the right direction. It cannot be ruled out that a breakthrough will occur in the coming days, as clear efforts to prevent hard Brexit and concessions (in the context of backstop) may happen relatively quickly.
Even if the vote on the modified Theresa May plan is not held at the end of February, it seems that the Brussels-London talks will be extended beyond the March 29th. Also in the case of a change of government or subsequent elections, the advantage of parliamentarians who want to avoid a chaotic Brexit is so large that, regardless of the new composition of the House of Commons, the worst case scenario is unlikely to happen. This should support the pound in the next few days.
Eurozone fails again
Preliminary eurozone PMI data for February do not show a clear rebound in the European economy after the disastrous end of 2018. In particular, the industry is surprisingly weak, where the manufacturing PMI index, for the first time in less than six years, suggests that the sector is shrinking.
According to Chris Williamson, head of economists at IHS Markit, the industry is negatively affected by the Brexit or trade problems on the USA-China line. In addition, there are issues related to the slowdown in the automotive industry, political uncertainty and general economic prospects. Williamson stresses that current PMI readings suggest GDP growth of only 0.1% in Q1 2019.
At the turn of 2017 and 2018, the index of new orders in the eurozone industry recorded several years highs and exceeded 60 points. Now, these values are 15 points lower, and we are starting to move around levels observed during the eurozone debt crisis in 2011-2012. The scale and pace of this slowdown are really surprisingly high. This is a bad omen for the coming weeks, especially in the context of the March meeting of the ECB and the new macroeconomic forecasts of the central bank.
Neutral data for zloty
After good data on wages for January or industrial production growth at the beginning of the year, today's readings of the Polish Central Statistical Office (GUS) were slightly weaker. Retail sales real growth amounted to 5.2% year-on-year. Although it was in line with expectations, we could expect a bigger rebound after a weak December. Construction production was worse than expected, but a year ago, in January, the growth was very strong, so now the high base from last year could weigh on readings. In general, the figures were not impressive, but with a weak economic situation in the eurozone, they still look solid.
In general, the impact of the data on the zloty was limited. The Polish currency remains weak, which is mainly due to low inflationary pressure and lack of prospects for rate hikes. This issue will remain unchanged in the coming days, so the chance of a rebound in the zloty remains weak, especially given the lack of better situation of the eurozone.
Subscribe to our currency newsletter
See also:
Dollar will not help zloty (Afternoon analysis 20.02.2019)
Good data but zloty is still weak (Daily analysis 20.02.2019)
Pound gains and zloty drops (Afternoon analysis 19.02.2019)
Strong labour market on the British Isles (Daily analysis 19.02.2019)
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Open your free account today
Save your time and money. Create an account for free and discover how much you can gain. Join us today, and start using attractive currency services.
Create free account