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Another encouraging report from the US (Daily analysis 2.07.2020)

2 Jul 2020 16:46|Bartosz Grejner

The positive sentiment on the market is strengthened by a June report on the US labour market. The dollar and zloty maintain a stable level.

The zloty appreciates supported by positive sentiment

Thursday's quotations ran under the sign of optimism in the morning hours. This was partly due to the publication of a series of better-than-expected macroeconomic data, and partly to reports on progress in the preparation of the coronavirus vaccine.

As a result, the EUR/USD pair increased slightly above the 1.13 boundary, i.e. to the highest level since last Wednesday. This was a positive signal for the currencies of emerging countries, which were gaining as a result of higher risk appetite. Although these were not big changes, the zloty also gained, not exceeding the range of quotations from the past few days in relation to the main currencies.

US workers rolled up their sleeves

At 2:30 p.m., there were June data from the US labour market and a weekly report on jobless claims, also from the US.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the number of new payrolls in the non-farm sector increased by 4.8 million, i.e. by about 1.6 million above the market consensus. Data on the unemployment rate, which fell from 13.3% in May to 11.1% in June, while the median expectation was 12.5%, also turned out to be positive.

The professional activity of Americans also increased (by 0.3 percentage points) to 61.5%. According to the May reading, the activity was 60.8%.

Pessimistic aspects of an optimistic report

The report from the US labour market seems to be very optimistic and is a positive stimulus for the market. Nevertheless, there are a few issues that may reduce its overall strength somewhat.

First of all, some states of the USA are again introducing restrictions in connection with coronavirus outbreaks, so the data may quickly turn around and not announce a favourable trend. Secondly, May and June are likely to be the best months in terms of increases, given how low they are coming from. Thirdly, there are about 14.6 million more unemployed people in the US economy than at the end of February.

The warning light for the favourable June figures may be a bit fresher information on the number of new jobless claims from last week. According to the Department of Labor, 1,427 million claims were submitted. Although the positive trend continued, as the number fell in comparison with last week, the fall was minimal, from 1,482 million, and not as significant as the market expected - 1.35 million.

Currency market at peace

The afternoon's publications resulted in an increase in optimism in the broader market. Also, the dollar pared the losses, at least in the first hour after the publication of US data. These were obviously not significant changes, as in the previous days. The EUR/USD quotations moved from 1.13 in the morning to about 1.125-1.127.

The effects of increased optimism and the relatively better condition of the dollar in the afternoon were de facto countered in terms of their impact on emerging countries' currencies, including the zloty. The zloty's quotations in relation to the main currencies still do not change fundamentally. The EUR/PLN exchange rate fluctuated between approx. 4.46-4.47 PLN and the USD/PLN exchange rate between approx. 3.95-3.975 PLN. Later in the day, we should observe the zloty's quotations close to the current ranges.


2 Jul 2020 16:46|Bartosz Grejner

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without acknowledgement of the source is prohibited.

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