Another day full of optimism (Daily analysis 8.07.2020)

On Wednesday morning, in the absence of significant macroeconomic events or the publication of new data, changes on the currency market were limited. The main currency pair, i.e. EUR/USD, was listed at around 1.1280, which is only 0.1% above yesterday's closing level.

A peaceful start of summer and…

The stabilisation and lack of fundamental changes in the broader market are mainly because we are in a period of transition between an unprecedented closure of the economies and an assessment of the possibility of returning to pre-pandemic conditions. It is quite clear that the market response to previous months' data is limited. What matters is the future.

Currently, the market is dominated by optimism, although problems, e.g. in some parts of the USA, related to the pandemic (imposing restrictions) may cast some shadow over the recovery path. Even Europe, which is coping better with the pandemic than, for example, the US, according to new projections published yesterday by the European Commission, is facing a deeper recession than expected in May.

...slightly worse predictions for the fall

As macro data on the strongest growths after the re-starting of the economies are currently flowing, only the following months will show how the return to the pre-crisis situation might go and how long it will take. It should be expected that the next statistics will not be so impressive anymore. The information from July and August will allow defining more precisely how stable this growth path is and how consumer demand is shaping, one of the main determinants of its shape.

Nothing new for the zloty

The zloty's quotations to the world's main currencies this morning were stable. The EUR/PLN exchange rate moved between 4.46-4.47 and the USD/PLN rate around 3.96-3.97. How does the Polish currency position itself against the pound? Today's announcement in the Parliament made by Rishi Sunak, Minister of Finance, was an important issue for the British economy. He spoke of a new stimulus package. However, the programme was already known yesterday and then it strengthened the British currency a bit. Today the changes were only minor, and the GBP/PLN exchange rate was 4.98 PLN around midday, which is approximately the same as on Tuesday evening.

The calendar of planned events for the rest of the day is practically empty, and we do not expect any significant increase in fluctuation, but rather a movement around current levels.