__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
CINKCIARZ_FX
Valid: 1 session
Maintains user sessions.
csrfToken
Valid: It does not expire
Protection against csrf attacks.
user
Valid: It does not expire
Stores information that indicates whether the user is from the USA.
browserId
Valid: It does not expire
Required for trusted browsers to function properly.
collect-bank-#
Valid: It does not expire
usłudze Collect. Remembers the last chosen bank in the Collect service.
collect-country-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen country in the Collect service.
collect-currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Collect service.
social_offer_top20_currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Top 20 List).
social_offer_exchange_buy_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_buy_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_sell_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to sell).
social_offer_exchange_sell_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to sell).
#-service-popup
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers choosing "Do not show this message again." when changing providers.
missing-required-fields-form-#
Valid: It does not expire
Records information that the missing data form has been shown to the user.
Sentiments in the financial markets are very positive despite an increasing probability of the hikes in the USA. The dollar has stabilized after strong growths on Tuesday. The zloty remains at a low level, despite favorable economic data.
Investors of the worldwide stock markets are calm. This opens the door to the hikes in the United States. Currently, there is a 38% probability of an increase in interest rates at the Federal Reserve meeting in June. To compare, only two weeks ago it was less than 10%. The chances for the hikes in July are estimated at 61%.
A change in the market's expectations regarding interest rates suggests that the hikes will be made this Summer. This factor did not succeed in discouraging investors to buy shares. Moreover, the quotations of raw materials are increasing, especially for copper. This is a sign that investors have interpreted the Fed's plans as an evidence that the economy is in a sufficiently good condition, and it will handle an increase in interest rates.
After a strong depreciation yesterday, the EUR/USD has stabilized at the level of approximately 1.1150 dollars on Wednesday. Considering an increase in probability of the monetary tightening in the USA, we can expect an appreciation of the dollar in the long-term.
Zloty at a low level
Increasing optimism in the broad market has created an opportunity for the emerging market currencies to strengthen. The zloty used this impulse to work-off some of the losses against the main currencies on Tuesday. However, the Polish currency stabilized at a low level on Wednesday, even though the emerging markets currencies are gaining. The Hungarian forint, which is strongly correlated to the zloty, is gaining against the euro, as well as against the dollar.
Arnaud Louis of Fitch presented the expectations before the review of Poland's rating in July (source: Reuters). In his opinion, the assumptions regarding the budget for 2017 will be crucial for sustaining the rating (especially keeping the deficit below 3% of the GDP). Arnaud Louis suggested that Fitch will rather not change Poland's loan credibility in July.
Today, the Polish Central Statistical Office (GUS) informed that in April the unemployment rate decreased to 9.5%. The forecasts assumed it would be 9.6%. The month before, the unemployment rate was 10%. The last time the unemployment rate was as low was in December 2008. Today's data confirmed a strong revival in the labor market. On the other hand, the acceleration of industry is supported by a strong increase in orders (29.5% in April, after a 17.5% increase the month before).
April's reports suggest a significant improvement in economic results for the next quarters. The reports regarding the industrial production were also very positive. The retail sales data met the expectations. However, we could expect an increase in consumption due to a gradual development of the 500+ program. Thus, the data suggests that a slowdown from the first quarter was temporary.
Due to positive economic data, the Monetary Policy Council should not be eager to decrease interest rates. This factor may support the zloty in the long-term. However, for the time being the Polish currency remains under the influence of expectations regarding the hikes in the USA. Moreover, an increased political risk is a negative factor. Considering the above factors, the chances for a stronger zloty are relatively low.
See also:
Daily analysis 25.05.2016
Afternoon analysis 24.05.2016
Daily analysis 24.05.2016
Afternoon analysis 23.05.2016
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Download our app
Stay tuned and make managing your favourite currency services faster, easier, and more convient. Wherever you are.