Afternoon analysis 24.04.2017

Optimism after the first round of the French presidential elections has been supported by positive data from Germany. The zloty is being one of the strongest currencies.

Positive sentiment in Germany

The European stock markets have been increasing 3-5% today. Investors have been clearly calmed by the result of the first round of the French presidential election. Both the euro and the emerging market currencies have been increasing. However, gold, the yen, franc and dollar have clearly lost value.

This sentiment has been improved by the data from the Ifo institute regarding the German business sentiment for April. This index reached its highest level in approximately six years. The situation improved in almost every sector, except for the industrial sector. However, the building sector improved. The wholesale sector improved as well and reached its highest level since 1991.

German companies evaluate the current situation as positive. This was the main reason for the entire index’s growth. However, companies were less optimistic towards the forthcoming six months, but these levels were still relatively high.

The Ifo index most likely increased the positive market sentiment. Therefore, it seems unlikely that the sentiment would deteriorate in the near future. Nevertheless, even though the euro has reached its one-month maximum against both the dollar and yen, it could be weakened by Mario Draghi’s press conference on Thursday (if Draghi confirms the ECB’s dovish attitude).

Positive condition of zloty

Today, the zloty was one of the strongest currencies. Despite the euro’s strength, the EUR/PLN decreased by approximately 0.5%. Moreover, the zloty has gained approximately 2% against the dollar, pound and franc. However, this positive sentiment could be stopped, if the American president presents the tax reform plan. This would strengthen the dollar, as well as weaken the zloty.

Tomorrow’s events

At 16.00, Conference Board will publish the American consumer sentiment index for April. This index’s result from the previous month was at the level of 125.6 points, which was its highest since December 2000. Consumers were particularly optimistic regarding condition of both the labor market and business.

Moreover, the amount of consumers who expect a short-term salary growth increased up to 21.5%, whereas the amount of consumers who expect salaries to decrease went down to 7%. The previous Conference Board survey was consistent with the University of Michigan index, which was near its eleven-year record. Currently, the market consensus for the Conference Board index is at the level of 122.9 points.

The market will most likely also be focused on the data regarding sales of new houses in the USA for March. This is because of last week’s record sale in the secondary market. However, the market consensus is at the level of negative 0.5%. Positive results of both the Conference Board index and sales of new houses, should cause the dollar’s growth.