__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
CINKCIARZ_FX
Valid: 1 session
Maintains user sessions.
csrfToken
Valid: It does not expire
Protection against csrf attacks.
user
Valid: It does not expire
Stores information that indicates whether the user is from the USA.
browserId
Valid: It does not expire
Required for trusted browsers to function properly.
collect-bank-#
Valid: It does not expire
usłudze Collect. Remembers the last chosen bank in the Collect service.
collect-country-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen country in the Collect service.
collect-currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Collect service.
social_offer_top20_currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Top 20 List).
social_offer_exchange_buy_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_buy_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_sell_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to sell).
social_offer_exchange_sell_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to sell).
#-service-popup
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers choosing "Do not show this message again." when changing providers.
missing-required-fields-form-#
Valid: It does not expire
Records information that the missing data form has been shown to the user.
The tension in the US weakens the dollar. The Polish currency has been in a good condition, however, there’s a chance of a price correction.
Further weakening of the US currency
After a disappointing CPI report from last week, political issues from the US exerted further pressure on the dollar. It caused the main currency pair, EUR/USD, to climb above the 1.11 level for the first time since Donald Trump won the election on 9th November. A degree of market uncertainty pushed the prices of both the yen and gold, which are labelled as ‘safe havens’ in times of trouble, significantly higher today. The Japanese currency was the strongest in relation to the dollar since 5th May and the price of gold per ounce closed in on the 1250 USD level, highest since 3rd May.
There are no important macroeconomic publications concerning the US market planned for this week which could significantly impact the dollar. The Federal Reserve published just yesterday the industrial production data for April which exceeded economists’ expectations. However, they were largely ignored by the market and overshadowed by the current political tension in the US. It seems highly probable that the dollar will be driven this week by the sentiment regarding the aforementioned political situation and potentially further information regarding the whole aspect.
Zloty still in good shape
The Polish currency gave back some of yesterday evening’s gains, although still remains fairly strong and close to recent records. The USD/PLN pair was still below the 3.80 level and the EUR/PLN close to the 4.20 level. CHF/PLN rose to the upward boundary of yesterday’s trading range, which is in part, due to a slightly stronger Swiss franc today.
The current uncertainty connected with the situation in the US could prove to be negative for the Polish currency. An appreciating yen and rising gold prices suggest an increased level of risk aversion. Should it be underlined by a fall in US equities, that could cause European stocks to go down as well, pulling the zloty lower in effect. If one adds a dovish MPC today, the zloty could lose value, potentially entering a correction phase of recent gains.
Tomorrow’s preview
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish at 10.30 a.m. CET data regarding retail sales in April. They were below expectations in Match - +1.7% vs. a consensus of 3.4% compared to a year ago, which contributed to a depreciation of the pound. The market expectations point to an increase of 2.1% in April. After relatively positive labour market report from Tuesday, a positive signal coming from retail sales could strengthen the British currency.
At 2.00 p.m. the Central Statistical Office in Poland will publish data on how employment and wages changed in the corporate sector in April. The last months saw both rising at a fast pace underscoring positive processes taking place on the Polish labour market (coupled with a falling unemployment rate). The median of market expectations points towards maintaining a 4.5% employment increase (close to 9-year highs) and towards a 4.4% increase in the average wage, on a year-to-year basis. That’s less than in March (+5.2%), however, that would still constitute the biggest increase in the last six out of seven months. Readings close to the aforementioned consensus (or above) could support the Polish currency.
The US Department of Labour will share a report on initial jobless claims and insured unemployment for the ended week. Although the number of initial jobless claims was slightly better than expected in the last week’s report (236k) but it was the insured unemployment number that drew the most attention. It reached the lowest level since 5th November 1988 – it was also the fourth week in a row of readings below 2 million people. According to market expectations, initial jobless claims could go up by 4k and insured unemployment by 42k. However, this would still be close to recent records which could positively impact the dollar. The influence could be limited, though, as political tension in Washington currently dominates the market sentiment.
See also:
Daily analysis 17.05.2017
Afternoon analysis 16.05.2017
Daily analysis 16.05.2017
Afternoon analysis 15.05.2017
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Download our app
Stay tuned and make managing your favourite currency services faster, easier, and more convient. Wherever you are.