Afternoon analysis 12.01.2017

12 Jan 2017 16:30|Bartosz Grejner

The euro zone’s industrial production and the German economy were both better than expected. Positive data from the American labor market. The Polish currency remains relatively calm.

Positive data from Europe

According to the Eurostat data, the euro zone’s industrial production increased 1.5% MoM and 3.2% YoY in November. This was this index’s best result in more than five years. This was mainly a result of an increase in the energy production (5.9%), as well as in the non-durable consumer goods production (3.7%). Only the durable goods decreased (0.8% YoY). The production index for the entire EU was at the level of 3.1%.

The best result was quoted by Ireland (14.6%), despite that this country’s previous result was one of the worse in the euro zone (negative 4.7%). The data show that only Malta and Sweden experienced a decline in the industrial activity (negative 0.8% in both cases). The German industrial production increased by 2.3% YoY (1.7% in October).

Today, Destatis published the German GDP data for 2016. The result was at the level of 1.9% YoY, which was better than expected (1.8%). This was mainly because of an increase in the household consumption (2%), as well as in the local consumer expenses (4.2% YoY).

The American labor market

Last week’s jobless claims index was at the level of 247k. This result was by 10k higher than the previous one, but also by 8k lower than the market consensus. The four-week average decreased as well (256.5k). This was the ninety-seventh consecutive week, in which jobless claims were below 300k. Another positive aspect from the Labor Department report is a decrease in the amount of insured unemployed by 28k in comparison to last week (2.087 million, currently).

The dollar continued to wear-off this afternoon. The EUR/USD went to the 1.0685 level and the USD/JPY was pushed below 114. This caused the dollar’s index (DXY) to reach its lowest level in more than one month. Moreover, the USD/TRY went down from 3.94 to approximately 3.79.

Zloty is calm

The zloty remains calm. The EUR/PLN has been near 4.37 through the majority of the day. The GBP/PLN was near 5.04. The dollar’s global wear-off caused the USD/PLN to go below the 4.10 level for the first time in approximately two months. However, the zloty remains weak against the forint. The PLN/HUF reached its minimum from the past few days.

Tomorrow’s events

At 2.00 PM, the Polish Central Statistical Office (GUS) will publish the CPI data for December. Initial estimates from December 30th showed a 0.8% YoY growth. In the Month over Month interpretation, this index increased by 0.7%, which was its highest growth in approximately five years. The market consensus is consistent with the initial reading.

The global inflation is currently fueled by an increase in the raw material prices (especially oil). One year ago, they were at a significantly lower level. However, this effect will gradually fade out, because the raw material prices were gradually increasing in 2016. Therefore, tomorrow’s data from the GUS most likely will not cause a significant reaction on the zloty, because of the sentiment related to revision of Poland’s rating.

At 2.30 PM, the US Census Bureau will publish the data regarding retail sales for December. This data usually has been an indicator of the consumer expenses, which are a large portion of the GDP. This index’s pace has been decreasing in October and November (0.6% MoM and 0.1% MoM, respectively). Currently, the market consensus is at the level of positive 0.7% MoM and 0.5% MoM in the case of the baseline index (excluding vehicles).

At 4.00 PM, we will know the University of Michigan consumer sentiment. This index reached its highest level in approximately thirteen years in December, mainly because of the optimism related to the election of the new American president. The market consensus indicates a further increase in this index (from 98.2 points to 98.5 points). Both of the above mentioned readings from the American market may significantly impact the dollar’s evaluation, due to the fact of the USD wear-off caused by Trump’s press conference yesterday.



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This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without the written permission from Cinkciarz.pl Sp. z o.o is prohibited.

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