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Afternoon analysis 10.05.2016

10 May 2016 16:20|Artur Wiszniewski

A broad improvement of the market sentiment. This time, the eurozone reports missed the expectations. The zloty did not exploit better market sentiment in order to gain. The Polish currency stayed at the low level.

On Tuesday, the market sentiment improved. Gains were prevailing in the European markets. Still, the scale of the gains was rather subdued. Moreover, the futures contracts for the US indexes suggested a good session.

The market sentiment was not affected by the reports concerning the European countries. Once again, the data from industry disappointed. In Germany, production missed the forecast. It dropped 1.3 percent on a monthly basis against the 0.3 percent forecast. Also, data from France missed the expectations. Production in the second largest eurozone economy dropped 0.3 percent against the positive 0.5 percent forecast.

In contrast, the data on the German balance of payments surprised positively. In March, the current account surplus stood at 30.4 billion euros - the highest level in history. In addition, the trade surplus (goods and services) increased to 26 billion euros, which is also on record. The report suggests an expansion on a high level.

Greece with a chance for debt relief

Moreover, the latest news concerning Greece had positively influenced the market sentiment. Information agencies said that the IMF and the Eurogroup narrowed differences on the debt relief issue. Although there is no current discussion on a nominal debt reduction, there are speculations about the possibility of other forms of relief.

The latest rumors suggest that the problem may be resolved before the June ECB payment. In the next month, Greece is expected to repay 3.5 billion euros. It would not be able to meet the obligation without additional support. Comments from Germany's Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, suggest a higher probability for an agreement. Until then, he had been against a similar solution.

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD was steady, but little below yesterday's close. The major currency pair hovered above 1.1370.

Chinese inflation

Inflation in China met analysts' expectations. In April, consumer prices increased 2.3 percent on a yearly basis against the 2.4 percent that was forecast. Producer's prices dropped 3.4 percent. It was a result better than the expected negative 3.8 percent.

The report was a somewhat of a relief after yesterday's data on international trade. The report showed a drop in the trade turnover - a sign of further slowdown in the economy. As a result, the commodities dropped on Monday. But the situation has changed today, especially in the case of copper. Still, the commodity currencies did not exploit the situation, and the Russian ruble exceeded losses.

Weak zloty

On Tuesday, the zloty stabilized on the low level. The Polish currency remained under the pressure of political risk before the Moody's agency decides on the nation's rating. The probability that the grade will be lowered is quite high. Given the situation, the chance for a stronger zloty are limited.

10 May 2016 16:20|Artur Wiszniewski

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without acknowledgement of the source is prohibited.

See also:

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Daily analysis 10.05.2016

9 May 2016 16:32

Afternoon analysis 09.05.2016

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Daily analysis 09.05.2016

6 May 2016 16:42

Afternoon analysis 06.05.2016

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