Afternoon analysis 09.05.2017

09.05.2017 15:32|Bartosz Grejner

Both export and import of Germany increased to its record levels in March. However, industrial production was disappointing. The zloty has been losing against the dollar.

Euro has been stable and dollar has been stronger

According to Destatis, German export for March was at the level of 118.2 billion euros, whereas import was at the level of 92.9 billion euros. Both of these indexes were significantly above the market consensus and are even more impressive in the Year Over Year interpretation (export: positive 10.8%; import: positive 14.7%). This data is positive for Poland, for which Germany is the main trading partner.

Destatis also presented the data regarding industrial production, which unexpectedly decreased by 0.4% MoM (estimates: positive 0.6% MoM). Moreover, this index’s data for February were revised from 2.2% to 1.8%. However, yesterday’s reading regarding orders in the industrial sector has suggested a worse reading for industrial production.

Mixed data from Germany have had comparably limited impact on the euro, which has been relatively stable. However, the dollar has been growing stronger, along with the profitability of US bonds. The EUR/USD went below 1.09 and the dollar’s index went up to 99.5 points. Due to that, the USD/JPY went above the 114 level. The yen’s quotations were even worse against the pound. The GBP/JPY has reached the level of approximately 147.3, which is its highest since December 2016.

Zloty has been relatively stable

Today, we have been observing minor changes on the zloty. The EUR/PLN was slightly below 4.23. However, due to the globally stronger dollar, the USD/PLN went up to the level of 3.885. Due to the yen’s weakness, we have observed capital outflow from another safe haven currency, the franc. The CHF/PLN went below 3.87.

It seems that the zloty will be following the global sentiment in the forthcoming days. However, the dollar’s strength will most likely be limited to the USD/PLN.

Tomorrow’s events

The Energy Information Agency (EIA) will publish its weekly report regarding the US oil market. Investors will mainly focus on changes in oil supply, as well as in oil production. Moreover, last week the oil prices went down to their level from the end of November. Therefore, the EIA’s report significance for the oil quotations may be even larger.

Last week’s report showed that the decrease in the oil supply wasn’t as large as expected (negative 0.9 million barrels vs negative 2.3 million barrels). Moreover, oil production increased up to the level of 9.26 million barrels per day. The next negative reading may cause oil prices to continue to decrease. This is in spite of the markets’ speculations that the OPEC countries are considering expanding oil production limits until the end of the first quarter of 2018.

Significant changes in oil prices may be reflected in the currencies of the countries which export oil (Canada and Norway, among others), as well as in the inflation level. Over the past six months, inflation growth has been mainly driven by an increase in raw material prices. If this trend stops, the estimated global economic growth will be reduced. Moreover, this would reduce the likelihood of rate hikes.

 


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See also:

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