Afternoon analysis 09.02.2017

The American jobless claims index is near its forty-three-year minimum. The zloty is becoming weaker and the EUR/PLN is further from its recent minimum.

Positive American data

The American Labor Department informed that last week’s jobless claims were at the level of 234k. This result was by 15k lower than expected, as well as near this index’s forty-three-year minimum (233k). Last week’s jobless claims caused a decrease in the four-week average to the level of 244.25k, which is its lowest value since November 3rd of 1973.

However, the number of insured unemployed increased to the level of 2.078 million. This is 15k more than in this index’s previous reading. Today’s data from the American Labor Department was generally positive, but its impact on the dollar was limited.

The EUR/USD remains below 1.07. This caused the dollar’s index to remain at the level of approximately 100.2 points. Tomorrow’s visit of the Japanese prime minister in the USA will be crucial for evaluation of both the dollar and the yen. However, due the recent decision from the British parliament, the pound has strengthened globally and the GBP/USD increased to the level of approximately 1.258.

Zloty’s slightly weaker

According to the Polish Press Agency, Jerzy Kwieciński (vice-minister of development) estimated that due to the use of the EU funds, the economic dynamics in Poland will increase by approximately 1% in 2017. This should translate to positive economic data for both the second and the third quarter. This opinion is consistent with the opinion from Adam Glapiński (chairman of the Monetary Policy Council). Yesterday, he said that he expects investments to start increasing in the second quarter. Moreover, in his opinion we may see positive results in the first quarter. Kwieciński added that the largest impact of investments, which are based on the EU funds, will occur in 2019 and will increase the GDP growth by approximately 1.5%.

The zloty wore-off this afternoon. The EUR/PLN increased from 4.307 to 4.32. The globally stronger pound caused the GBP/PLN to reach its highest level in one week (5.079). The zloty wore-off against the forint as well. The PLN/HUF reached its lowest value in two weeks (71.34).

Tomorrow’s events

At 10.00 AM, the International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its monthly oil market report. Yesterday’s data from the Energy Information Agency (EIA) indicated that the American oil supplies were at their highest level since the end of October. The data from particular OPEC members will allow to evaluate the consistency level of the oil production in these countries, with the agreement regarding production limits. The official OPEC report about fulfillment of the agreement, will be published on February 17th. Until then, the oil prices should remain within the range of 50-60 dollars per barrel.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS will present the data regarding the British industrial production for December. The data for November was a positive surprise. Currently, the market consensus is at the level of 3.2% YoY and 0.2% MoM. Estimates regarding the industrial processing (the industrial production’s largest component) are at the level of 1.8% YoY and 0.5% MoM. After Theresa May’s victory in the British parliament, the pound gained value. Therefore, positive readings from December could boost the British currency even more.

At 4.00 PM, the University of Michigan will publish its consumer sentiment report. In January, this index was at its highest level in more than twelve years. This was mainly caused by optimistic perspectives regarding the American economy, after electing the new American president, instead of improving economy. Therefore, the forthcoming months may bring a decrease in this index. The market consensus is at the level of 97.8 points, which is by 0.7 points lower than this index’s previous reading. This result would wear-off the dollar and push the dollar’s index towards the level of 100 points.