__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
CINKCIARZ_FX
Valid: 1 session
Maintains user sessions.
csrfToken
Valid: It does not expire
Protection against csrf attacks.
user
Valid: It does not expire
Stores information that indicates whether the user is from the USA.
browserId
Valid: It does not expire
Required for trusted browsers to function properly.
collect-bank-#
Valid: It does not expire
usłudze Collect. Remembers the last chosen bank in the Collect service.
collect-country-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen country in the Collect service.
collect-currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Collect service.
social_offer_top20_currency-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Top 20 List).
social_offer_exchange_buy_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_buy_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to buy).
social_offer_exchange_sell_fc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (First currency to sell).
social_offer_exchange_sell_sc-#
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers the last chosen currency in the Social transactions service (Second currency to sell).
#-service-popup
Valid: It does not expire
Remembers choosing "Do not show this message again." when changing providers.
missing-required-fields-form-#
Valid: It does not expire
Records information that the missing data form has been shown to the user.
The amount of new workplaces in the non-agricultural sector is definitely higher than the market consensus. However, component of the salaries growth was weaker and unemployment rate increased. The zloty gained slightly against the euro, as well as the franc. The dollar is near the 4.00 level.
Equalization of the May disturbance
We took note that the weak readings from the American labor market in May, were just a statistical disturbance. They were caused by a rather small sample group, used by the American Labor Department to estimate changes in employment for the entire population.
A slowdown in creating new workplaces was not indicated by the ADP data (it examines new workplaces in the private sector and it is obtained with the use of significantly larger sample group). The May reading, as well as the June reading that was published yesterday, were near the recent median within the range of 150-170k. Apart from this, jobless claims were low, the ISM employment components was positive and the job offers amount was high.
As a result, a reading at the 287k level was not that surprising. This is because it just equalizes the last month disturbance, as well as returns to the 150k value from the past few months. This should decrease anxieties of some of the market participants who claimed that the recent data may suggest the market slowdown.
However, the data about the salaries growth was disappointing. It was only a positive 2.6% y/y against the expected positive 2.7%. In the month on month relation the growth was at a positive 0.1% level against the expected positive 0.2% level. This probably caused a rapid work-off on the EUR/USD to the 1.10 area.
It is also worth noting that the last months decrease in unemployment level, has been corrected in this report as well. The unemployment level measurement is based on different surveys than payrolls are. Last month it decreased due to the fact that a significant amount of people stopped looking for a job. This means that they were no longer included in the workforce. This statistical disturbance has been currently corrected as well. The unemployment rate returned to the 4.9% level. This had a neutral impact on tone of the data.
In conclusion, we may say that we are returning to the same state from before the May data. The labor market is in a positive condition, the salaries could grow faster, but the market is slowly tightening and the economy is near the full employment. This should slowly raise the chances for rate hikes this year, especially if the Brexit consequences in the USA are mild, or even unnoticeable.
Data slightly strengthened the zloty
The Polish currency gained slightly due to the data from the American labor market. It denies the slowdown in the USA, as well as sustain the perspective of a mild monetary policy due to a slower increase in salaries. At approximately 16:00 (4:00 PM), the EUR/PLN was near the 4.41 level and the franc was at the 4.06 level.
Publication from the United States also sustains our previous standpoint that the following weeks may be relatively favorable for the emerging markets currencies, including the zloty. This may cause the EUR/PLN to go to the area of 4.35. This is of course, if we don't receive any negative information. However, the break of Summer and Autumn may be much more difficult for the zloty. This is the time in which Brexit may reflect in hard data. We will observe the negotiations between London and Brussels. Moreover, the Fed may start suggesting rate hikes more firmly.
See also:
Daily analysis 08.07.2016
Afternoon analysis 07.07.2016
Daily analysis 07.07.2016
Afternoon analysis 06.07.2016
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Download our app
Stay tuned and make managing your favourite currency services faster, easier, and more convient. Wherever you are.