__cfduid
Valid: 29 days
It helps us protect the website from threats such as hacker attacks. Used by Cloudflare to recognise trusted network traffic.
__lc_cid
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
__lc_cst
Valid: 3 years
Necessary for proper functioning of the chat available on the website.
rc::a
Valid: It does not expire
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::b
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
rc::c
Valid: 1 session
Cookies to correctly distinguish between human and bot-generated traffic.
NID
Valid: 6 months
Records a unique number to recognise the device you are using. It is used for advertising.
_ga
Valid: 2 years
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
_gat
Valid: 1 day
Used by Google Analytics to reduce queries. Reduces the amount of statistical data collected.
_gid
Valid: 1 day
Registers a unique user number to collect statistical data about how you use our website.
yt-player-bandwidth
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
yt-player-headers-readable
Valid: It does not expire
Determines the best video quality based on your device and the Internet connection used.
The dollar gained on the labor market data. The reading paves the way for an interest rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting in December. The zloty and other emerging market currencies dropped after the data was released.
The report from the labour market situation in the US exceeded the forecast. Employment in the non-farm sector increased 271k. It was more than the 185k that was expected. Employment increased 137k in the prior month (revised from 142k). It was the largest gain this year.
Other readings were also very good. The unemployment rate dropped to 5 percent against 5.1 percent last time. The numbers on wages were also positive. It increased 0.4 percent on a monthly basis against the 0.2 percent that was expected. On a yearly basis it increased 2.5 percent.
October's report leaves no doubts to whether the US labor market expansion is strong enough. It is very likely the Federal Open Market Committee will decide to raise the rates in December after the report’s release. In the last few days, the Fed members (including the Fed Chair Janet Yellen) have conditioned the decision on tightening on the economic reports.
As a result, the probability of a hike increased to 72 percent (based on the futures market). The market's reaction was unambiguous. The dollar gained against the euro to the highest level since April. The US currency also increased against other major pairs.
In contrast, the euro was additionally pressured by the economic reports. Once again, the German reports missed the forecast. After a weaker than expected reading on industrial orders today the report on production missed the forecast. Reports have shown that the emerging market slowdown has affected the German economy. If the tendency holds in the longer term, it may affect the region. Moreover, there is still a possibility that the European Central Bank will decide to strengthen the stimulation in December.
Pound exceeded decline
The British currency posted the second day of declines. On Thursday, the Bank of England unexpectedly showed a dovish stance. The monetary authorities cut the outlook for inflation - a move that defers the interest rate hikes.
Today the pound declined due to a weak report from the industry. Production dropped 0.2 percent against the minus 0.1 percent that was expected. The British statistical office revised down the data on international trade, which may drag the GDP growth further. As a result, the GBP/USD dropped to the lowest level since April. The move was exceeded after the US labor market data.
Zloty under pressure
The unemployment rate dropped to 9.6 percent in October, according to the labour ministry. It was the lowest level since December 2008. The report confirmed the view that the labor market remains strong in spite of weak reports in general.
However, the approaching tightening in the US will negatively affect the emerging market currencies. The tendency is going to hold in the medium term. The zloty will be affected. As a result, the probability of a wider rebound of the Polish currency is limited.
Subscribe to our currency newsletter
See also:
Daily analysis 06.11.2015
Afternoon analysis 05.11.2015
Daily analysis 05.11.2015
Afternoon analysis 04.11.2015
Attractive exchange rates of 28 currencies
Live rates.
Update: 30s
Open your free account today
Save your time and money. Create an account for free and discover how much you can gain. Join us today, and start using attractive currency services.
Create free account