Afternoon analysis 02.03.2017

02.03.2017 15:28|Bartosz Grejner

The latest jobless claims index has set the new forty-four-year record. Positive data from the British building sector didn’t support the pound. The zloty lost value after it’s appreciation from yesterday.

Record jobless claims

The Amercian Labor Department published the jobless claims index, which was at the level of 223k. This was by 20k better than expected. Moreover, this was its best result since March 31st 1973. However, the amount of insured unemployed was only 3k larger than last week (2.066 million).

Taking into consideration that the jobless claims index has been near it’s forty-year minimum for a few months, the dollar’s reaction was limited. The EUR/USD was near the 1.05 level. Moreover, the USD/JPY was near the level of 114.4. As a result, the dollar’s index went above the 102 level.

Pound remains under pressure

Despite a relatively positive condition of the British economy, the pound has remained weak. The GBP/USD was pushed to its lowest level since January 20th. This is a result of speculations regarding the potential independence referendum in Scotland, which added uncertainty on the British currency.

Moreover, the dollar is strengthening. This has been a result of the American economy’s improving condition, as well as the perspective of the fiscal stimulation from the American administration. Both of these factors caused that the Federal Reserve is more eager to raise interest rates.

Additionally, the British industrial PMI appeared to go down from 55.9 to 54.6. Today’s data regarding the building sector PMI from CIPS/Markit was not able to support the pound, even though it was better than expected (52.5 points). Therefore, the GBP/USD remains below 1.23.

Zloty is weaker

After yesterday’s appreciation, the zloty gave away a portion of its gains. The EUR/PLN went towards the 4.30 level, whereas it was below 4.28 this morning. Moreover, the GBP/PLN increased from 5.00 to 5.02.

Due to the globally stronger dollar, the USD/PLN increased up to approximately 4.0850. The further dollar’s appreciation may be caused by tomorrow’s testimonies from both Janet Yellen and Stanley Fischer. This is of course, if their message is hawkish. If this happens, the USD/PLN may go above the 4.10 level.

Tomorrow’s events

IHS Markit will publish the services sector PMI for Germany (at 9.55) and for the euro zone (at 10.00). This will be the second reading of these indexes. Therefore, this most likely will not impact the euro significantly. The market consensus for both Germany and the euro zone is similar as it was in the initial reading and it’s at the level of 54.4 and 55.6 points, respectively.

At 10.30, IHS Markit will publish the services sector PMI for the United Kingdom. After three consecutive months of growths, this index decreased unexpectedly in January (from 56.2 to 54.5 points). Currently, the market expects this index to decline as well (to the level of 54.1 points, which would be its worse result since September 2016.) Taking into consideration the recent high pace of the pound’s wear-off, tomorrow’s reading may increase its fluctuations.

At 15.45, IHS Markit will publish the second reading for the American services sector PMI for February. The initial data regarding this index indicated a large decline (from 55.6 to 53.9 points). Investors will most likely anticipate more the services sector ISM, which will be published fifteen minutes later. This index has been relatively since November. The market consensus is at the level of 56.5 points. Taking into consideration an intense reaction of the dollar to the industrial ISM yesterday, we may expect significant fluctuation on the USD, if the reading is inconsistent with the consensus.



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