Zloty closer to being stable (Afternoon video analysis 04.05.2018)

04.05.2018 15:21|Marcin Lipka

Data from the US labour market is not very satisfying - wages are rising significantly below market expectations. The zloty appreciated before the US data. The EUR/PLN quotations are close to the 4.25 boundary.

US data failed to meet expectations

Readings from the American labour market have failed. According to the household survey, unemployment fell, but this decline did not translate into an increase in employment. These people have become professionally inactive, and the activity rate has dropped to 62.8% and is even lower than a year ago. Additionally, wages increased only by 2.6% YOY, i.e. by 0.1 percentage points below the estimates.

Data from enterprises also turned out to be average (separate survey than households). The number of payrolls increased by 164k, which was about 30k below the market estimates. Therefore it should be stated that the data was below in red. This applies in particular to wages, which still have not reach the 3.0% YOY level.

Around 3.00 p.m., the market reaction was quite subdued. Initially, yields on the US Treasury bonds fell sharply, but after some time a significant part of the losses was pared. The response on the EUR/USD pair was also ambiguous. Data from the US was weak, but this from the eurozone was also worse than expected. Therefore, the market cannot decide which currency area is the weakest link at the moment. It seems that currently, investors awaits for further signals.

Zloty may stabilise

Before the data from the US labour market, the zloty was clearly appreciating. After the readings from the US, one euro cost between 4.24 PLN and 4.25 PLN. Taking into account the external conditions, it seems that this is the level of balance for the zloty.

If the US session is relatively calm, the zloty will maintain today's increases and the beginning of next week should not bring such rapid changes as those visible in the first days of May.


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