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Limited changes to the zloty (Afternoon analysis 14.08.2018)

14 Aug 2018 15:47|Bartosz Grejner

Data from the euro area economy, similarly to the Polish economy, had a very limited impact on the currencies of these regions. Lira regained some ground but Turkey's situation will not improve quickly.

EUR/USD still around 1.14

Tuesday's session was relatively calm. Although the situation of the Turkish currency (as well as of the economy) is far from optimal, it has made up for some of the losses, albeit relatively little. This may also be due to a slightly better situation on the stock exchange market and the lack of significant appreciation of the dollar. The rhetoric of the Turkish President, aimed at confronting the western world, does not bode well for the improvement of the condition of the economy and the lira at the moment.

The main currency pair, i.e. EUR/USD, oscillated just below 1.14 moment after 3 p.m., recording only a minimal drop in relation to yesterday's levels. During the day, neutral macroeconomic data were published regarding the eurozone and could not help the single currency (higher than expected GDP growth rate, lower industrial output).

The calendar of publications for the following hours is virtually empty, so significant changes in the valuation of the dollar or the euro should not be expected. Similarly, in the case of the Polish zloty, whose quotations in relation to the basic currencies remained around yesterday's closing levels. The EUR/PLN exchange rate was quoted for most of the day around approx. 4.30.

In this case, data consistent with the consensus (GDP, inflation) from the Polish economy should also support the maintenance of current levels. The weakening of the zloty could come along with a strong fall below EUR/USD 1.14, although most likely its scale would not be large due to a relatively good condition of the zloty compared to other EM currencies.

Tomorrow's preview

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will provide data on consumer inflation (CPI) in the UK in July at 10:30 a.m. Its core index (excluding energy and food prices) fell unexpectedly to 1.9% year-on-year in June. This is the lowest level since March 2017. A median of market expectations indicates that this level will be maintained also in July. However, if the core inflation index were to fall below 1.9%, the pound could be under significant downward pressure.

The Census Bureau will publish retail sales data in the USA in July at 2:30 p.m. Excluding automobile sales, the market consensus points toward a 0.4% monthly increase, as it did in June. Three-quarters of an hour later, the Federal Reserve will publish industrial production data in July. Market estimates indicate an overall production rate increase of 0.3% compared to June, as in the case of its largest component - manufacturing.

In the context of the current stabilisation in the broad market, fundamentals may begin to play an increasingly more important role in the context of the valuation of the dollar, or the quotations of the main currency pair (EUR/USD). solid data on production and retail sales, especially those exceeding market expectations, could confirm a very good condition of the US economy and strengthen the dollar.


14 Aug 2018 15:47|Bartosz Grejner

This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without acknowledgement of the source is prohibited.

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A marginally weaker Polish zloty (Afternoon analysis 09.08.2018)

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