Daily analysis 18.01.2018

18.01.2018 12:50|Marcin Lipka

The yields on the US Treasury bonds are increasing. Data from China and Fed representative statements without any significant impact on currency quotations. The zloty remained stable and was close to 4.17 EUR.

The most important macro data (CET - Central European Time). Surveys of macro data are based on information from Bloomberg unless noted otherwise.

  • 2:30 p.m.: Weekly data on initial jobless claims in the USA (estimates: 249k),
  • 2:30 p.m.: New investments in the US real estate sector and building permits in December (estimates: 1.28 million and 1.30 million respectively; annualised data).

Bond impact on currencies still limited

The second part of yesterday's US session was interesting and clearly showed the current relations between debt instruments, shares and currency markets. In the late afternoon (CET), indexes on New York's market significantly accelerated in the case of growth and began to move towards historical highs.

At the beginning, increases on the market have weakened the dollar as at the same time Treasury bond yields have not increased. This was an argument for the dollar depreciation, which was probably caused by the outflow of some capital outside the US currency market.

Just after 8:00 p.m., the yield of the US Treasury bonds started to increase as the stock market grew stronger, suggesting a higher chance of tightening monetary policy in the following months. This caused a drop in the EUR/USD quotation from around 1.2280 to about 100 pips below.

Yesterday, the trends observed for the past few weeks were confirmed by market behaviour. The lack of a reaction to share increases on interest rates or debt markets (theoretically, there should have been one), causes the dollar to lose value. However, when such a reaction occurs (growing yields) then the correlation returns between the growing market valuation of future interest rates and the dollar.

The current features of good sentiment and the still accommodative monetary policy approach do not help the dollar. However, if this situation reverses (worse sentiment combined with maintaining the pace of monetary tightening), it may be really negative information for the emerging market currencies. They may lose support from the favourable economic situation in the US and, at the same time, may suffer from the perspective of tightening monetary policy by the Fed.

China and statements from Fed representatives

In the morning, the market received data from the Chinese economy. It was in line with expectations. The GDP growth for the whole of 2017 exceeded the economist expectations by 0.1 percentage points and amounted to 6.9%. A rapid increase in retail sales (9.2% YOY) and industrial production (6.2% YOY in December) translates into GDP growth.

Statements from Fed members did not bring a significant reaction in the recent hours. Charles Evans, who in December was against an interest rate increase (in 2018 he had no vote), said during the discussion in Florida that interest rate increases generate a risk of not reaching the 2% target by inflation. During the same discussion, Robert Kaplan from the Fed said that he was concerned about the risk of overheating the economy and that the Fed should gradually raise interest rates. In general, the statements of both representatives did not differ from the views they previously represented.

Still stable zloty

The EUR/PLN quotations remained relatively stable and were moving in the range of 4.17 PLN (plus/minus 0.01 PLN). Slightly higher volatility has an impact on the dollar, which during yesterday's session in the USA (details above) fell to 3.39 PLN and then pared losses and amounted to 3.42 PLN.

Stable quotations are the base scenario for the Polish currency. However, the greatest danger for the Polish zloty is a rapid deterioration of global sentiment or strong growth of market interest rates in the US, e.g. as a result of the growth acceleration on the US market or a series of statements by Fed members. Apart from these extreme events, the zloty's fluctuation range should be limited.


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This commentary is not a recommendation within the meaning of Regulation of the Minister of Finance of 19 October 2005. It has been prepared for information purposes only and should not serve as a basis for making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor the publisher can be held liable for investment decisions made on the basis of information contained in this commentary. Copying or duplicating this report without the written permission from Cinkciarz.pl Sp. z o.o is prohibited.

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