Daily analysis 09.11.2016:
Surprising result of the American presidential elections caused panic on some of the currencies. Will Trump’s policy accelerate changes in interest rates? At the beginning, the zloty was very stable against the main currencies. However, it wore-off before noon.
Most important macro data (CET – Central European Time). Estimations of macro data are based on Bloomberg information, unless marked otherwise.
- 16.00: MPC press conference
Strong reaction to elections
The result of the American presidential elections was a surprise. This was not only because the swing states voted in favor of Trump, but also because he won in these American regions, which clearly supported Clinton (Wisconsin, for example). According to the RealClearPolitics, surveys were giving Clinton at least 3% advantage. Moreover, the recent Remington Research survey (ordered by Republicans) showed she had an 8% advantage over Trump. Eventually, Trump won. This shows inconsistency between estimations and the actual result.
At approximately 3.00 AM, investors began to evaluate Trump’s victory. Overvalue of the American indexes in the terminal contract market was higher than 5%. The Mexican peso lost more than 10% against the dollar. The USD/TRY or the USD/ZAR were 5% higher. However, a significant portion of this overvalue was reduced shortly after Trump’s speech and opening of the European session.
However, it seems that the reaction of the debt market was even more interesting. Initially, profitability of the American bonds were decreasing. This caused the chances for rate hikes in the USA to decrease to the area of 50%. However, later on they began to increase and have returned to their level from Tuesday. This element will determine behavior of the dollar in the forthcoming weeks.
Will Trump’s policy impact Fed’s actions?
The market is wondering whether Trump’s politics will increase or decrease the chances for rate hikes in the USA.
If we take into consideration Trump’s announcements of significant increase in infrastructural expenses, decrease in taxes and revision of trade agreements, this should theoretically be an element that would accelerate inflation growth. The result of these actions would be a more restrictive monetary policy, this a stronger dollar.
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is sensitive to the GDP growth abroad, as well as the market’s behavior. If the perspective for economic development outside of the USA is deteriorating, this would translate to a negative condition of the American companies. This would limit the chances for rate hikes.
It’s also unclear how the Congress will react to Trump’s new initiative. Even though the Republicans have the majority in Senate, as well as in the House of Representatives, it seems quite doubtful that they would vote in favor of a significant increase in expenses. Therefore, we simply don’t know how Trump’s policy will impact the fiscal policy. Moreover, it’s difficult to define the direction of the Fed’s monetary policy. This most likely caused a strong decrease in profitability of the American bonds at the beginning (an increase in risk aversion) and their return to their previous level later on (the perspective of changes in expenses).
Zloty is slightly weaker
Looking at the zloty’s reaction to a surprising result of the American elections, we could assume that the Polish currency is resistant to serious market disturbances. However, the PLN began losing value after profitability of the American debt began growing. Combination of a weak global sentiment and increased expectations regarding rate hikes in the USA was strong enough to wear-off the zloty.
The matter of lower/higher interest rates in the future, will be crucial for the zloty’s behavior. However, it’s difficult to estimate impact of Trump’s, as well as of the Congres policy on the Fed’s decisions (more on this topic in previous paragraphs).
It’s worth taking note of the MPC press conference today. This afternoon, not only we will know the MPC announcement, but also a portion of the data from the latest NBP inflation projection. This may slightly increase nervousness on the zloty, especially if the growth for this year is revised below the level of 3%.
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